The succession debate in the ANC has not officially opened, but it’s raging. It requires no rocket scientist to see that the deputy president is nowhere near where he can be declared uncontested, despite the advantage of established convention. Notwithstanding that being the president of the republic, as the prize for being ANC president, is no longer as guaranteed, a faith-based contest has begun.
There are two December 16 dates to go through before the next ANC elective conference. There is a National General Council, generally seen as the litmus test of where the wind is blowing. Compounding this will be the outcome of the consequential 2026 or 2027 municipal elections. Embedded in the 52 regional conferences of the ANC is a subtle process of consolidating endorsements by the ANC’s leaders at the centre of the contest. These regional conferences play a crucial role in the succession battle, as they serve as platforms for leaders to garner support and endorsements from influential figures within the party.
What has not emerged in the succession conversations and rituals is what each contender stands for. The last time a contest was as fierce as the one unfolding, the challengers to the prize had already come out on what they stood for.
Unlike previous succession battles, the 2027 ANC leadership contest will not be an internal affair. The leader who stands to guide the ANC or any political party with the potential to garner between 15% and 28% of the vote must appeal to South Africans. This shift in focus demands a different track record and recognition criteria that resonate with the broader society and not just the branch delegates at the ANC conference.
In the parlance of the current ANC chairperson, there is more to leading the ANC than singing and the ‘dololo capacity’ he decried at the ‘marching orders collection’ imbizo of September 15 this year. This ‘dololo capacity’ issue, which refers to the lack of effective leadership and decision-making within the ANC, is a significant challenge that the party is grappling with. Reminiscent of the pre-2021 municipal elections, the pre-2022 ANC elective conference and the pre-2024 national elections, the ANC faces the Madlanga Commission, water security issues and service delivery protests.
The national dialogue, which almost collapsed at its launch, is now regaining momentum. It is expected to provide platforms for new leaders to emerge outside the traditional in-party platforms. This societal readiness to acknowledge and appreciate anyone who has contributed to the now 30-year-old post-apartheid South Africa introduces new criteria beyond the branches of political parties, offering hope for a fresh wave of leadership.
The question that looms large is who will step forward for the ANC branches to consider in 2027. Unless reviewed, the branches’ role in the upcoming 2027 conference is consequential, and their decision will shape the future of the party and the country.
Convention makes Paul Mashatile the leading contender. It might be too early to conclude what he stands for as a South African leader. With the command of the platform he could use, he should have already become a standard against which the rest of the contenders are measured. The deputy president is the person to beat in this succession battle, making him the standard bearer of what the ANC could become.
As ANC deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa emphasised anti-corruption and state capture as the core of his value proposition to the ‘re o rata kaofela’, rallying brigades within the ANC constituency and citizens. Ramaphosa communicated more with South Africans while contesting the ANC presidency. The jury is still out on what Mashatile specifically has planned for South Africa and its people — a value proposition beyond ANC members is the nation’s expectation.
The discourse on the need for a woman president is gaining traction, positioning Dr Gwen Ramokgopa and Nomvula Mokonyane as contenders. Mokonyane has confirmed her willingness to stand if approached ― a standard ‘I am available and contesting’ statement within the ANC. She must craft a value proposition beyond the ANC branches. Her track record in similar positions will be scrutinised, and her reputation will enhance or reduce the now-established 40% threshold beyond ANC branches.
Ramokgopa, the treasurer-general of the ANC, has a credentialed gravitas that has not spewed ‘smallernyana’ skeletons thus far. She should know that her track record is dusted for billboard display. As the contest unfolds, with name-dropping intensive commissions of inquiry such as the Madlanga Commission, her reputation might be the most significant asset she needs to contest. If the ANC could be given a chance, its previous delivery record would inform the 40% and those who abstained. Unfortunately, the ANC brand has become a tag-along, highly dependent on who it is tagging along with.
Outside the top seven ANC leaders, there is evidence of green shoots with impeccable track records. If leading South Africa is the predominant criterion for selection, the pool within the ANC is broad enough. Buzzing names include Jeff Radebe, the cool and calm policy head of the ANC who served under all ANC presidents post-1994. There is Patrice Motsepe, whose name has managed to be an absence of presence.
Murmurings of past ANC leaders who are in the private sector and testing the succession waters, are plentiful. Mcebisi Jonas has his hand raised by sections of the ANC. In generational terms, Fikile Mbalula, arguably the most senior ANC member from his generation, is reluctantly raising his hand. He is caught between standing for the ANC presidency and accepting the role history has assigned to him to rebuild the ANC. Only his various intelligences will be the final arbiter.
The complexity of the 2027 succession lies in how the ANC will allow provincial talent and ambition to emerge. With Ramaphosa on his way out, Gwede Mantashe is not showing any interest in returning, and three of the top seven openly vying for the presidency, the ANC is effectively seeking five people to fill seven positions. If Mbalula joins, that number will rise to an impressive six, signalling a further balkanisation of the liberation movement.
• Dr FM Lucky Mathebula is the head of faculty, People Management, and founder of The Thinc Foundation, a think-tank based at the Da Vinci Institute
For opinion and analysis consideration, email opinions@timeslive.co.za
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