The class of 2025 received a record number of matric passes, which is worth celebrating. But higher success rates also mean higher demand. Our responsibility now is to make sure that hard-earned passes do not become cul-de-sacs, but real pathways into higher education, skills and work.
About 927,000 pupils wrote the National Senior Certificate, the largest cohort in South Africa’s history. More than 82% passed, meaning that more than 760,000 young people successfully completed 12 years of schooling. This matters. It reflects a schooling system that is retaining more children, stabilising after years of disruption and producing improved outcomes, including in many no-fee schools where performance has historically lagged behind.
But from the perspective of post-school education and training, these same numbers illuminate a growing pressure point that can no longer be managed quietly or deferred to the future.
This year, about 345,000 matriculants achieved bachelor passes, making them eligible for degree studies. Yet each year South Africa’s public university system, including universities of technology, has room for only about 230,000 students starting tertiary education for the first time. This means that well over 100,000 young people who formally qualify for university will not find a place, not because they failed, but because the system does not have the capacity. The situation is more dire if one considers that about 209,000 pupils achieved diploma passes that in principle will give them access to diploma programmes offered by some of our universities.
That gap between eligibility and opportunity is not a communications problem. It is structural. And unless we explain it honestly, it creates expectations that cannot be met and frustration that is often misdirected at institutions that are already operating at or near capacity.
A bachelor pass is an achievement, and it must be respected as such, but it is not a guarantee of admission to degree study
This is why we need a much more explicit conversation between basic education and higher education about how we speak about bachelor, diploma and higher certificate passes. A bachelor pass is an achievement, and it must be respected as such, but it is not a guarantee of admission to degree study. Eligibility is not the same as availability, and conflating the two does a disservice to students and families who understandably assume that a bachelor pass automatically opens a university door.
These pressures are intensified by the broader social context. Youth unemployment remains among the highest in the world, and formal job creation has not kept pace with the number of young people entering adulthood each year. For many, post-school education is not simply about aspiration; it is about survival, dignity and the possibility of long-term inclusion. As a result, the post-school system must serve both those who complete matric successfully and those who leave the schooling system earlier or with weaker results.
At the same time, the pressure on public funding continues to grow. The government has been clear that to the extent possible financial hardship should not prevent students from pursuing further learning opportunities, and this commitment is reflected in the scale of financial aid now required. Each additional cohort entering post-school education increases the demand on a funding system that must balance access, sustainability and quality.
One of the most serious warning signals in the results remains the continued weakness in mathematics and physical science. Although the absolute number of learners writing mathematics increased slightly this year, only about 34% of matric candidates wrote mathematics, with the majority opting for mathematical literacy. This is not a marginal issue. Mathematics remains a key gateway subject for many of the most competitive and economically strategic programmes in higher education.
Even more concerning is that mathematics and accounting pass rates declined, while physical science recorded only a slight improvement. When these numbers are unpacked further, the challenge becomes clearer. While more than 345,000 matriculants achieved bachelor passes, the number who meet the specific subject and performance requirements for programmes such as natural sciences, engineering, health sciences, actuarial sciences, data science and parts of commerce is significantly smaller. Demand for these programmes far exceeds supply, and the pool of suitably prepared applicants is narrower than headline pass rates suggest.
Even more concerning is that mathematics and accounting pass rates declined, while physical science recorded only a slight improvement. When these numbers are unpacked further, the challenge becomes clearer.
This is why we now need a far more detailed analysis of how many matriculants actually meet entry requirements for competitive programmes, compared with the number of places available. Without this clarity, we risk celebrating aggregate success while quietly narrowing access to the fields most critical for long-term economic development.
The renewed emphasis by basic education on early childhood development and foundational learning is therefore not only welcome but essential. Weak foundations in literacy and numeracy do not suddenly appear in matric; they accumulate over time. By the time pupils reach grade 12, the post-school system is already dealing with the consequences of learning gaps that emerged years earlier. Universities and colleges spend billions on extended programmes, academic development and remediation, all of which are necessary, but all of which would be more effective if foundational learning were stronger.
From the post-school side, we are actively working to expand and diversify opportunities. Public universities now enrol just over 1-million students, and we continue to invest in infrastructure and capacity expansion. At the same time, TVET colleges serve more than 500,000 students, with clear plans to grow this number substantially, recognising their central role in producing artisans, technicians and mid-level skills. Community education & training colleges, which provide second-chance and alternative pathways, remain critical for absorbing students who do not move directly from matric into formal post-school programmes.
We are also examining more deliberately the role of bridging and foundational programmes, including higher certificates and preparatory routes that allow matriculants to strengthen their readiness before entering demanding qualifications. These pathways are not inferior options. In a system marked by inequality and uneven preparation, they are essential instruments of inclusion.
There is another reality we must state clearly. Our universities produce the teachers who serve the basic education system. If we are serious about improving outcomes in mathematics, science and accounting, then teacher supply, training and deployment must be planned far more closely across departments. We need sufficient numbers of teachers, trained in the right subjects, placed where the system needs them most. This requires sustained co-ordination between basic and higher education, not annual reactions to results.
The matric results tell us something important about who we are becoming. More young people are staying in school. More are completing. Equity is improving in meaningful ways. But they also tell us that success at the school exit point shifts pressure forward into a post-school system that is already stretched, and into a labour market that cannot yet absorb everyone.
Our responsibility now is not to dampen hope, but to anchor it in honesty, planning and realistic options. Among the options we are actively considering are a clearer national conversation on post-matric pathways, expanded and better-funded bridging programmes, stronger alignment between school subject choices and post-school demand, closer planning with basic education around teacher supply, and continued expansion of TVET and community college opportunities alongside universities. And fundamental to all of this is inclusive growth of the economy, without which the demand and supply equations do not work.
This is not a crisis, but it is a moment that demands seriousness, realism and a quiet optimism. If we get this right, the gains we are seeing at school level can translate into genuine opportunity beyond matric for millions of South Africans. If we avoid the hard conversations, we risk turning success into frustration. That is a risk South Africa cannot afford.
• Manamela is minister of higher education
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