In the beginning was the word — Donald Trump’s word, I mean. He told us the war with Iran would be swift. This mantra captured his approach: “My attitude is: we don’t need anybody. We’re the strongest nation in the world.”
Iran was never going to be able to strike US targets outside the Middle East. Iran, like Vietnam, was never expected to overpower the world’s superpower. The question has been whether, like in Vietnam, Iran could pull off a stratagem to weaken, from a distance, the warmongers of Washington.
The forced closure of the Strait of Hormuz seems about the only trick the overlords in Tehran could pull out. It seems to work like a slow poison. The Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of the world’s oil — about $600bn worth of energy trade per year — through the narrow passageway.
The oil comes from Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran — countries in the crosshairs of this war which has sent oil prices above $100 per barrel, which has threatened a surge in inflation for the world economy.
Lessons from the first oil crisis in 1973 — oil embargo on exports to the US — “led to the quadrupling of oil prices within two months, causing a stock market crash and a recession in the US”, according to the Federal Reserve history.
This week, the UK’s Guardian reports: “The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing a ‘paralysing, real-time problem’ for any prospective manufacturing surge in the US defence industrial base, and even for the repair of defence equipment damaged by Iranian attacks, according to analysis published by West Point’s Modern War Institute.”
Trump being Trump, he regrets nothing, even when he is watching prices going up in the US, where he campaigned for elections on the ticket of affordability and price containment
Earlier this week, Trump asked Nato and other allies for help to force open the strait.
“It’s not our war,” they seemed united in their response. Trump was infuriated. “Because of the fact that we have had such military success, we no longer ‘need’, or desire, the Nato countries’ assistance — we never did! Likewise, Japan, Australia or South Korea.”
He added that it was a “very foolish mistake” for Nato and other nations to decide not to help the US.
“Everyone agrees with us, but they don’t want to help. And we, you know, we as the United States have to remember that because we think it’s pretty shocking.”
The Guardian reported that Trump thought Europe would “have sent minesweepers to assist with the operation in the strait, adding that it was ‘not a big deal’ but was ‘unfair’ to the US.”
What is clear is that Trump is trying harder to project confidence. He wants the world to know that the biggest economy in the world will finish what it has started in Iran. The request for help was merely a test of loyalty. What he doesn’t see is that the more he talks, the more aggressive he becomes, the more fearful he seems.
What is ironic is that the very man who, at the beginning of the war with Iran, told the world he did not have to consult with the UN or other nations because the mighty America needed to gift the people of Iran peace from their murderous leaders was now crying foul about other nations’ “foolish mistake” of not helping.
When there is no activity, no movement on the strait, Trump remembers there is a community of nations that could be of help. He probably remembers the UN. But, Trump being Trump, he regrets nothing, even when he is watching prices going up in the US, where he campaigned for elections on the ticket of affordability and price containment.
This is an American president getting increasingly fearful about how the war in Iran is spiralling. This is why he is declaring victory even when the world economy is facing a strait stranglehold. This is why he is asking for help from Nato but tells us he never needed it
Asked about getting American boots on the ground in Iran, The New York Times captured Trump’s response on Tuesday as that of a leader “unconcerned that such moves could commit US forces to a Vietnam-like boondoggle in Iran. ‘I’m really not afraid of that,’ he told reporters. ‘I’m really not afraid of anything.’”
The question was whether he was concerned, but his response talks to fear. My view is that this is an American president getting increasingly fearful about how the war in Iran is spiralling. This is why he is declaring victory even when the world economy is facing a strait stranglehold. This is why he is asking for help from Nato but tells us he never needed it.
Why is it “unfair” for him to not get the help he doesn’t need? Why call Nato “cowards” for not helping him with a war he had no desire to consult other nations about in the first place?
When told France’s Emmanuel Macron rebuffed efforts to get his country involved, saying, “France did not choose this war; we are not taking part in it,” Trump’s response was that Macron would be out of office soon. By that he means in 2027.
The aggressive rhetoric toward allies is meant to bully them into taking more responsibilities to guard or police the strait. Trump is trying hard to show he is not afraid.
Ahead of the war and in anger at the wrong target — Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, who has no say in who gets the Nobel Peace Prize — he said he felt no “obligation to think purely of peace”. We should have known all along that for the world to be peaceful, we do not need the UN. We just need the wrong Norwegian target to help Trump “think purely of peace” by giving him a Nobel Peace Prize, a toy he demanded.
How dare they! He was furious. Operation Epic Fury was the result. This fury, however, can’t open the strait today, imperilling all of us. While Trump initially thought the mighty US is always right, the cracks started showing this week. Fear of what the meaning of the Strait of Hormuz being closed is has become palpable.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.