WANDILE SIHLOBO | SA agriculture well placed to weather El Niño drought

The likely impact of the expected El Niño weather pattern on South Africa’s agriculture and food prices next year is a major point of discussion among analysts and economists.

By mid-2026, weather forecasts were signalling that the world was heading towards a severe El Niño. The phenomenon tends to have varying impacts on different regions. For southern Africa, it typically presents drought, which is negative for agricultural production.

The arrival of the likely drought is due to coincide with South Africa’s 2026-27 summer crop season.

I believe that in examining the likely impact of this El Niño on crop production and food prices, two major factors need to be considered.

First, unlike in the most recent droughts, South Africa will enter the 2026-27 summer crop season with higher soil moisture after excessive rains in the 2025-26 season, which lasted longer than usual. South Africa received rains through to May 2026; the summer rains typically end around March. The rains improved the levels in dams and also soil moisture and water tables. This places the country in a better position ahead of the 2026-27 crop season.

Second, South Africa has ample grain supplies and carries over a high stock, which may soften some of the drought’s impact on food prices and therefore inflation.

Food is an important component of South Africa’s inflation basket, with a weighting around 16.8%. A rise in food price inflation therefore tends to influence the overall inflation trend. Still, it is likely that 2027’s drought may not be the same as previous droughts that led to a notable increase in food price inflation and then the headline (overall) inflation figure.

The drought that’s being forecast is not ideal and may impose costs on farmers, but any upcoming drought should not be viewed in the same way as previously. There are clear factors pointing to a better season

South Africa’s staple grain is maize. In past droughts, the country saw notable losses in maize production and a broader impact on other agricultural activities. For example, one of the most memorable droughts in South Africa occurred in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons. The maize harvest then fell to around 8.9Mt on average. (In the current 2025-26 season, South Africa is expecting to harvest 17.3Mt.)

The country’s annual maize consumption is about 12Mt, and a smaller harvest meant the country had to import. This led to a surge in food price inflation, which averaged 10.8% in 2016. (It averaged 3.2% in the first five months of 2026.)

The impact was not only on maize but across the field crops: maize, wheat, soybeans, sunflower seed and sugar cane, among others. 

Roughly 20% of South Africa’s field crops are under irrigation, with the rest rain-fed. All production of fruits and vegetables is under irrigation and will benefit from the higher dam levels this year.

This time, things are different.

First, South Africa has benefited from a prolonged La Niña, a weather pattern that makes the region wetter. This has supported the agricultural sector over the past few years, with farming better placed ahead of the 2026-27 season.

In the 2024-25 season, the summer rains continued through April 2025; they normally end in March. In the 2025-26 season, they went on to May 2026.

Ordinarily, such extended rainfall would raise concerns about crop quality. But in the areas that harvested the 2025-26 crops, the country hasn’t seen many quality issues. In fact, the crop estimates committee’s latest projections were revised higher and still point to a record summer crop harvest for 2025-26.

The longer rainfall season improved soil moisture and the water table. Planting starts in October 2026. There may be sufficient soil moisture to support seed germination and crop development even as El Niño likely causes below-normal rainfall.

That said, the timing of the rain is what will matter most.

In the irrigation areas, such as the fruit- and vegetable-growing regions, La Niña rains over the past few years have improved dam levels and the water table. Field crops will depend mostly on available soil moisture and the timing of showers going into the 2026-27 season.

For livestock, grazing across the country is in a fair condition, having benefited from the increased rain. The improved water table will continue to support pastures.

The second key factor is that South Africa has its largest-ever summer grain and oilseed crop in the 2025-26 season. The crop estimates committee places the summer crop at a record 21.49Mt, 5% up year-on-year. Notably, zooming in on the major grains, the 2025-26 maize production estimate is 17.25Mt, up 4%, and the largest harvest on record. This ample harvest adds to large carryover stocks.

The drought that’s being forecast is not ideal and may impose costs on farmers, but any upcoming drought should not be viewed in the same way as previously. There are clear factors pointing to a better season.

• Sihlobo is the presidential envoy on agriculture and land, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior research fellow at Stellenbosch University