PALI LEHOHLA | Komati’s ghost: the alarming metrics of South Africa’s ‘Just Transition’

The story of the Just Energy Transition (JET) is a stark reminder of how arrogance and uncaring state power can be even under democracy. South Africa bought a Trojan horse that no one wants to visit nor talk about today. But the evidence sits like a hump of a camel for everyone to see.

The mad rush of blood to the brain as the South African government partook in the discussions in European metropoles to implement the JET has left Komati a ghost town. The Presidential Climate Commission seems to have decided the less spoken about it the better. It is a nightmare of unmet promises. South Africa has since forgotten the name of the town once synonymous with the industrial heartbeat of Mpumalanga; it has become the epicentre of the JET. The decommissioning of the Komati Power Station in 2022 was heralded as a necessary, progressive step towards a low-carbon future — a pilot project intended to demonstrate how a community dependent on coal can pivot towards sustainable green energy.

But the reality on the ground, as captured by the granular socioeconomic diagnostics of the Lehohla Ledger*, tells a far more troubling story. The Just Transition in Komati is not just stalling; it is actively generating profound crises. Our analysis of the post-decommissioning landscape, leveraging 2,752 geo-spatial and economic instruments, reveals two catastrophic indices that demand immediate national attention: rapid labour disappearance and a nascent democracy collapse. Even the rudimentary growing of spinach, cabbages and carrots promised has not taken off ― a failed community within a mere two-kilometre radius from it are peers which are bustling with activity. It is a monumental crime that has deprived South Africa of 1,250 megawatts of power.

Labour disappearance

The primary promise of the JET is that new green economy jobs will replace the livelihoods lost in the coal sector. Komati was the test case for this transition. The results are alarming.

The Lehohla Ledger’s Labour Disappearance Index (LDI) for Komati measures the velocity at which formal, stable livelihoods are evaporating and being replaced by precarious or non-market activities. Since the final generator was switched off in 2022, the LDI has spiked dramatically.

The Komati experience serves as a stark warning for the impending decommissioning of other power stations, such as Hendrina and Camden.

The closure of the power station did not just eliminate the 700 direct Eskom jobs; it triggered a systemic collapse of the local contracting ecosystem. The LDI captures this multiplier effect in reverse. As the anchor employer vanished, the local service economy — from catering and transport to maintenance and retail — contracted with brutal speed. The unemployment rate within the immediate Komati residential area has soared, far exceeding provincial averages.

Crucially, the LDI also tracks the absorption rate of the proposed “repowering” solutions: solar PV, wind and battery storage. While these projects are planned, their immediate labour absorption capacity is a fraction of the jobs lost. The LDI reveals a “transition lag” that is not merely a statistical blip but a lived economic catastrophe for hundreds of households. For these families, the JET is experienced as an abrupt transition from employment to indigence.

Democracy collapse

Even more insidious than the economic fallout is the erosion of community agency and trust. The Democracy Collapse Index (DCI) does not measure national electoral integrity but tracks the procedural justice and substantive participation of the community in decisions that fundamentally reshape their lives.

The Democracy Collapse Index for Komati is currently flashing “high risk”.

The decommissioning process was largely perceived by the community as a top-down, technocratic decision imposed by national and international stakeholders. The promise of “procedural justice” — which requires meaningful consultation and shared decision-making — was not met. Residents, many of whom dedicated their working lives to powering the nation, report feeling marginalised and ignored.

The DCI tracks the widening chasm between the state’s rhetoric of a “people-centred transition” and the reality of a community that feels acted upon, rather than involved. When local priorities, such as reskilling for the renewable sector or localised enterprise development, are sidelined in favour of macro-policy imperatives, the social contract fractures.

This institutional disconnect is what the DCI quantifies. The collapse of trust in this pilot project threatens the legitimacy of the entire national JET framework. A transition that ignores the democratic imperative for community buy-in is not “just”; it is simply economic displacement repackaged. It is cruelty that reminds us of the apartheid government’s forced removals that banished people in thriving economies to deserts of impoverishment.

Beyond technocratic solace

The Komati experience serves as a stark warning for the impending decommissioning of other power stations, such as Hendrina and Camden. The “just transition” cannot succeed if it relies solely on energy-sector accounting (megawatts replaced by megawatts). It must prioritise the socioeconomic and democratic resilience of the affected communities.

To reverse the trends identified in the LDI and DCI, the following interventions are imperative:

• Localisation of economic value chains: the repowering of Komati must be leveraged for aggressive local economic development. This requires mandates for local procurement, training and employment in the construction and operation of the new renewable facilities, ensuring that the “green multiplier” benefits Komati, not distant economic centres.
• Direct income support and meaningful reskilling: the transition lag must be mitigated. A robust, transparent social compact is needed to provide direct support for displaced workers and their families. Reskilling programmes must be demand-driven, aligned with genuine job opportunities and initiated before decommissioning occurs.
• Deepening procedural justice: the democratic deficit must be addressed through the establishment of participatory governance structures with real decision-making power. The community must be recognised as a primary stakeholder, not just a beneficiary awaiting directives.

The story of Komati between 1996 and 2026 is still being written. If South Africa is to succeed in its decarbonisation journey without sacrificing its people and democratic values, the lessons from Komati’s rapid Labour Disappearance and Democracy Collapse Indices must be heeded today. The ghost of Komati should not be a monument to failure, but the catalyst for a necessary course correction.

* The author’s experience in statistical applications of 65 years has consolidated in what has become 2,752 instruments of the Lehohla Ledger. It is an intellectual trove driven by over 3,500 articles that Dr Pali Lehohla has penned throughout his work life as a bureaucrat and as a member of the public