ALEX MALAPANE

South Africa cannot tax its way to prosperity. Yet our economic conversation remains dominated by revenue collection, tax compliance and fiscal consolidation.

At the same time, insufficient attention is given to the macroeconomic policy mix that ultimately determines whether businesses invest, jobs are created and incomes grow. The country faces a revenue crisis, but more a growth crisis. It is time to shift the policy debate from tax mobilisation to macroeconomic policy rebalancing.

The 2026 National Budget reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline. It projected a tax-to-GDP ratio of approximately 25.9%, maintained a primary budget surplus, relied on stronger South African Revenue Service (Sars) collections and introduced increases in the general fuel levy, Road Accident Fund levy, carbon fuel levy and excise duties.

Fiscal prudence is necessary and should be welcomed. However, fiscal consolidation alone cannot become South Africa’s economic strategy.

According to the International Monetary Fund, South Africa’s economy is expected to grow only about 1.1% in 2026. According to Stat SA, the official unemployment rate stood at 32.7% in the first quarter of 2026, while youth unemployment reached 45.8%.

Public debt remains close to 78% of GDP, and debt-service costs continue to absorb an increasing share of government revenue.

The fastest way to improve fiscal sustainability is to expand the productive capacity of the economy. This is where macroeconomic policy rebalancing becomes essential

These indicators point to an economy that has achieved relative macroeconomic stability but continues to underperform structurally. The uncomfortable reality is that South Africa’s greatest macroeconomic challenge is no longer inflation; it is weak economic growth.

Every additional tax imposed on a stagnant economy ultimately places greater pressure on households and firms already struggling with rising operating costs, weak demand and constrained investment.

Government revenue is an outcome of economic expansion, not a substitute for it. The fastest way to improve fiscal sustainability is to expand the productive capacity of the economy. This is where macroeconomic policy rebalancing becomes essential.

The priority should be a decisive shift from revenue mobilisation to investment mobilisation.

South Africa’s gross fixed capital formation remains about 14%-15% of GDP, well below the level associated with high-growth emerging economies. The government should:

introduce accelerated depreciation allowances;
expand investment tax incentives for productive sectors;
simplify public-private partnerships; and
fast-track strategic infrastructure approvals.

Investment should become easier than compliance.

Second, the government must rebalance expenditure away from consumption and towards productive capital formation.

Every rand invested in electricity transmission, freight rail, ports, water infrastructure, broadband connectivity and logistics produces far greater long-term economic returns than expenditure that merely sustains consumption.

Productive infrastructure lowers business costs, raises productivity and strengthens competitiveness.

Third, South Africa should aggressively reduce the cost of doing business.

Electricity instability, inefficient ports, deteriorating rail infrastructure, municipal failures and regulatory complexity have become hidden taxes on investment.

Governments do not tax countries into prosperity. They create conditions where businesses invest, innovation flourishes, exports expand and people find work

Introducing statutory turnaround times for licences, digitising government approvals, reducing unnecessary regulation and strengthening municipal accountability would significantly improve investor confidence without costing the fiscus billions.

Monetary policy also has a role to play. The South African Reserve Bank has rightly preserved its inflation-fighting credibility. As inflation stabilises within the target over time, a measured easing cycle, when supported by economic conditions, can reduce financing costs and stimulate investment.

However, lower interest rates alone cannot compensate for weak infrastructure, policy uncertainty or declining productivity. Monetary policy must complement structural reform, not replace it.

South Africa should also rebalance from domestic demand towards export competitiveness. Advanced manufacturing, critical minerals, mining beneficiation, agro-processing, renewable energy, tourism, digital services and green industrialisation offer significant opportunities to expand exports and create sustainable employment.

Export-led economies consistently outperform those dependent primarily on domestic consumption because productivity, innovation and foreign investment reinforce one another. Equally important is labour productivity. The government should:

expand technical and vocational education;
strengthen university-industry partnerships;
incentivise apprenticeships; and
accelerate digital skills development.

Sustainable employment is created by productive firms operating in competitive industries, not by policy announcements alone. International experience reinforces these lessons:

Vietnam transformed itself through export-led industrialisation, infrastructure investment and regulatory certainty, becoming one of the world’s fastest-growing manufacturing economies.
Ireland combined fiscal discipline, investment in skills and a stable investment environment to attract global capital and high-value industries.
Indonesia restored confidence through fiscal reform, infrastructure expansion and investment liberalisation after the Asian financial crisis.
Australia strengthened long-term productivity through competition reform, infrastructure investment and institutional stability.
More recently, the US has used targeted industrial policy through the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act to crowd in private investment, strengthen domestic manufacturing and improve long-term economic resilience.

South Africa’s next economic chapter will ... be written by rebalancing macroeconomic policy towards growth, investment, productivity and opportunity

These countries differ in size, history and institutional context but they share one important lesson: they did not achieve sustained prosperity by relying primarily on higher taxation. They rebalanced macroeconomic policy to support investment, productivity, competitiveness and long-term growth.

South Africa already possesses many of the necessary foundations. It has:

sophisticated financial markets;
an independent central bank;
deep capital markets,
globally competitive financial institutions;
abundant natural resources; and
a resilient private sector.

What has been missing is policy co-ordination and implementation. The government should therefore adopt a national macroeconomic policy rebalancing framework built on the following measurable outcomes:

lifting annual economic growth above 4%;
increasing investment to at least 25% of GDP over the medium term;
reducing unemployment through private-sector expansion;
accelerating infrastructure delivery;
improving logistics performance;
simplifying regulation;
expanding exports; and
stabilising public debt through stronger economic growth rather than repeated reliance on revenue measures.

The debate should no longer be whether South Africa can collect more taxes. The real question is whether South Africa can grow the economy that generates those taxes in the first place.

Economic history consistently shows that governments do not tax countries into prosperity. They create conditions where businesses invest, innovation flourishes, exports expand and people find work.

South Africa’s next economic chapter will not be written by collecting more from a slow-growing economy. It will be written by rebalancing macroeconomic policy towards growth, investment, productivity and opportunity.

That is the reform agenda capable of restoring confidence, strengthening public finances and placing South Africa on a path of inclusive and sustainable economic growth.