Julius Malema's day of reckoning

Julius Malema's future in the ANC will be made known today, but the youth league leader will not be there for the announcement - he will be writing an exam instead.

The ANC's national disciplinary committee is said to have reached its verdict yesterday, after a protracted, politically fraught hearing whose outcome could influence the ruling party's elective conference next year.

The youth league has, in recent months, openly called for a change in leadership in the ANC with some leaders suggesting that President Jacob Zuma should be replaced by his deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe.

Malema and five other youth league leaders are charged with bringing the ANC into disrepute - following his controversial utterances on the need for regime change in Botswana - and for sowing divisions in the ANC.

It is widely expected that, if he is convicted, Malema will be suspended, particularly after a statement by Motlanthe on Tuesday night that the ANC only expels members believed to be beyond rehabilitation.

Millions of South Africans will be glued to radios and social networks for this morning's announcement at Luthuli House, the ANC's headquarters in Johannesburg.

However, Malema will be tackling an exam at Unisa's Polokwane campus. He is reportedly studying political science.

The rest of the league's top leadership, including spokesman Floyd Shivambu, would be at Luthuli House, the league said.

The disciplinary committee, chaired by Science and Technology Deputy Minister Derek Hanekom heard closing arguments in the case against Malema and the others until late on Sunday night, after the hearing was postponed twice last week.

While the other leaders are expected to receive fines with warnings, a guilty verdict for Malema could find him in the political wilderness for a period to be determined by the national executive committee.

In May last year, Hanekom said Malema - who was found guilty on the same charges following disrespectful remarks he made about Zuma at a youth league conference in Limpopo - would be suspended if he committed a similar offence within two years.

At the time, Malema accused Zuma of being worse than his predecessor, axed former President Thabo Mbeki, for rebuking him in public. While four other charges were dropped - including a charge of insulting a BBC journalist - Malema was ordered to apologise publicly to Zuma, attend political school and anger-management classes and pay a R10000 fine, for which the youth league set up an account for member donations.

According to the ANC constitution, should Malema be found guilty today, he can approach the party's national disciplinary committee of appeal, chaired by party stalwart Cyril Ramaphosa.

So the NEC would, in effect, have the final say.

Political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said, should Malema be found guilty, he was likely to appeal.

Should the appeal committee overturn the verdict and his sentence, Malema could petition the ANC's national working committee.

"Should he have enough support within the national working committee, this matter could be taken to the NEC, and depending how much support he has from the leaders within the NEC, the matter could go all the way to Mangaung [the ANC's elective conference] next year," he said.

Matshiqi said that, depending on Malema's support at the conference, Zuma could find himself in no-man's land as the conference could opt for a "vote of no confidence" against him.

Matshiqi said that, should Malema lose his appeal, however, and the NEC suspend him, his supporters might not differentiate a suspension from an expulsion, and it could start mobilising support against Zuma.

Suspension of Malema would pose an immediate problem when Zuma throws a R100-million bash to mark the ANC's centenary on January 8, Matshiqi said.

"I think they [the youth league] will not boycott the celebrations, they will attend. The question, however, is how will they behave?

"They might go there and even sing anti-Zuma songs or even walk out during the celebrations," he said.