NEC a whitewash‚ and a cabinet reshuffle is still on the cards‚ says Montalto

The ANC National Executive Committee meeting was a whitewash‚ where the NEC failed to confront President Jacob Zuma and separated him from the Guptas while declaring its support for him.

So said South Africa-watcher and political analyst Peter Attard Montalto‚ who released his take on the weekend’s NEC meeting on Monday‚ saying “although the party has closed ranks this time and has given President Zuma a six-month breather during an investigation into state capture – the ground is shifting”.

He said there was uncertainty about how and when the Zuma-Gupta issue would be resolved‚ and predicted a cabinet reshuffle as part of a Zuma fightback strategy.

He said despite a “Zumxit” not happening‚ several things had become apparent: that the ANC “still has the ability to hunker down and view itself as much bigger than the news flow or perceived internal crises”; that ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe was facing a tough challenge in conducting a six-month investigation into the Gupta’s reach into the state; that “overall‚ the majority of the ANC NEC still backs President Zuma‚ but has had to craft some response and some action – and likely chose the least bad option”.

Montalto said Mantashe was viewed as anti-Zuma‚ and that his investigation gave him great power. “This will be a real test of Gwede Mantashe‚ who in the past has gone with the flow of whichever side is winning‚ but more recently has stood out for his criticism of the Guptas and the need to clean up the ANC. He has also been at odds with some of the other ANC officials‚ for example over the recent meeting the ANC had with the Guptas.”

Montalto speculates that the provincial elections would be held in the week of August 8‚ and that a resolution of the Zuma-Gupta issue was unlikely until after the election. He saw various upcoming events as preventing a resolution: the elections‚ the Nkandla Constitutional Court case‚ the Zuma spy tapes court case‚ the medium term budget policy statement and the July ANC NEC Lekgotla.

“Therefore‚ a Zumxit (announcement of a managed exit) is unlikely to be before this mid H2 NEC meeting at the very earliest. In reality it will likely fall later still. The problem then is that things get very close to the December 2017 elective conference.”

In the meanwhile‚ he said “the investigation will buy (Zuma) and the tenderpreneur faction six months to push forward with consolidating power within government and within the NEC”.

Other factors were also clouding a resolution. “That leaves us with the simmering conflict between the Hawks and Pravin Gordhan – with the former threatening the legal route‚ more a pushback from the tenderpreneurs as seen in their PR and media in the past week‚ the SAA board battle‚ which is set to move forwards after Easter‚ with the nuclear power issue hovering in the background‚ and the SARS leadership issue still unresolved.”

Despite the uncertainty and avowals to the contrary‚ he predicted that a cabinet reshuffle was on the cards.

“However‚ the tenderpreneur faction will likely push back again. The most interesting threat to come for markets is a cabinet reshuffle. This has been muted for a year now in public and private and we believe it remains on the table. Doing so now‚ or over Easter‚ would be blatant for President Zuma after the NEC‚ but would be a show of and a consolidation of power.

"There has been too much noise‚ so it could be a real possibility in coming weeks. Deputy Finance Minister Mcebisi Jonas could be removed and replaced with a Zuma ally‚ who would be within the National Treasury as a tenderpreneur faction point man and control the Public Investment Corporation (PIC) and local development banks‚ for which the Deputy Finance Minister is normally Chairman. Such a move could be viewed as Nene-gate-lite.

“The wider reshuffle names (mooted since last year) are Rob Davies at the DTI and Blade Nzimande at Higher Education – ministers that are from the SACP (Communist Party) who have been increasingly vocal and anti-Zuma since H2 last year. We think the Minister in the Presidency Jeff Radebe is also viewed at risk‚ as he is seen to have too much power (often referred to as the South African Prime Minister) for someone in the AZT (anti-Zuma-tenderpreneur) camp."