Why the DA is likely to win the coalition war in Joburg

08 August 2016 - 14:39 By Ray Hartley


Although the ANC got more votes, it is less likely to find coalition partners because of Zuma. Who can form a government in Joburg? The ANC has the most votes, but there are several scenarios in which it could be unseated by an opposition coalition. These are the number of seats won by the parties in the election: PARTYSeatsReutersANC121Gallo ImagesDA104Julius Malema, the firebrand leader of South Africa's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) looks on before addressing his supporters during his campaign, ahead of the August 3 local government elections, in Etwatwa, a township near Benoni, South AfricaSIPHIWE SIBEKOEFF30SUPPLIEDIFP5AIC4VF PLUS1ACDP1ALJAMA1UDM1COPE1PA1There are a total of 270 seats (up from 260 in the 2011 election), so a party would have to obtain 136 to rule.These are the possible governing combinations:ReutersJulius Malema, the firebrand leader of South Africa's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) looks on before addressing his supporters during his campaign, ahead of the August 3 local government elections, in Etwatwa, a township near Benoni, South AfricaSIPHIWE SIBEKOANC 121 + EFF 30 = Clear majority of 151 seatsThis would make for a simple and clear majority. It is desirable from an ANC point of view as the two parties have the closest voter demographic. Most of the EFF votes come from people who once voted for the ANC. It could, however, be politically difficult because it is not desireable for the EFF. The EFF has publicly stated in very clear terms that it won't enter into a coalition with the ANC because it does not want to hitch itself to a party in decline. There is also the fact that its voters may be asking themselves why they switched parties only to find the party they rejected in power with the help of the EFF. Liklihood: 25%Gallo ImagesJulius Malema, the firebrand leader of South Africa's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) looks on before addressing his supporters during his campaign, ahead of the August 3 local government elections, in Etwatwa, a township near Benoni, South AfricaSIPHIWE SIBEKOSUPPLIEDDA 104 + EFF 30 + IFP 5 = Clear majority of 139 seatsorGallo ImagesJulius Malema, the firebrand leader of South Africa's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) looks on before addressing his supporters during his campaign, ahead of the August 3 local government elections, in Etwatwa, a township near Benoni, South AfricaSIPHIWE SIBEKOOTHERDA 104 + EFF30 + 2 or more votes from smaller parties = majorityLike the ANC/EFF scenario, this has simplicity on its side. But there may be political difficulties again. The DA and IFP could probably sit comfortably in the same space with the avowedly free market DA mayoral candidate Herman Mashaba. But the radical leftism of the EFF might make for a very uncomfortable business partner. Perhaps the attraction of chucking the ANC out of the country's economic hub might overwhelm ideological sensibilities. Liklihood: 45%ReutersGallo ImagesANC 121 + DA 104 = Thunderous majority of 225 seatsFor such a move to succeed the local ANC would have to put some 'blue water', as it were, between itself and the national ANC as the DA would not be keen to be getting into bed with Zuma. Such a coalition is highly unlikely as the two parties would prefer to be a dominant player in coalition with much smaller parties. Liklihood: 15%ReutersSUPPLIEDOTHERANC 121 + IFP 5 + AIC 4 + 6 other small parties = Unstable coalition of 136 seatsThis scenario is not totally out of the question. Remember that the VF Plus has had a deputy minister before. They ANC might throw that into the mix to strong-arm them into joining up with the likes of the UDM, Cope and others. This would be a highly unstable coalition with parties with one seat being able to threaten the majority at any point. Liklihood: 15%It's still very much a guessing game, but I think the most likely outcome right now is a DA, EFF, IFP coalition.

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