EFF 'only party that will grow significantly' as it eats into ANC
Survey reveals ANC might lose its majority in Gauteng
The latest election survey by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) has found that the EFF may be the only party to gain a significant increase in voter support when South Africa goes to the polls on May 8.
According to the report released on Wednesday, the EFF currently stands on 12.2% support nationally, which is 5.9 percentage points more than it secured in the 2014 national elections.
The IRR says its poll is not a prediction of the outcome of the elections, but rather "a snapshot in time" – in this case of the electoral market between February 12 and 26 this year.
The results put the ANC at 54.7% nationally, a slight decrease in support since a snap survey conducted in December 2018. Support for the DA remains mainly unchanged since 2014, with the party now at 21.8%, according to the IRR.
The poll also showed that the ANC may not secure a majority in Gauteng, with support in the province dwindling to 41.6%. The results show that the DA and the EFF, on the other hand, have the best chances of growth in the hotly contested province, growing to 32.4% and 18.2% respectively.
But the results also show that the DA's majority in the Western Cape is on a "knife edge", with smaller parties like the ACDP and FF+ showing growth in the province.
"The ANC's general decline from 2014 can be almost exclusively attributed to the EFF. The ANC and the EFF are locked in a battle for between 5% and 10% of alienated black ANC voters.
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"Where those voters end up on May 8 will go some way towards determining the fate of these two parties. It is clear those 5%-10% of alienated black ANC voters are fluid and have, to one degree or another, shifted between the ANC and EFF over the past five months," the IRR said.
"As of February, the ANC thus looks like it will battle to reach its internal national election target of 60%. However, it is still possible, with a good campaign over the coming two months, to once again win back some of those alienated but fluid voters it has lost to the EFF. The EFF appears to be the only opposition party able to make direct and significant inroads into the ANC’s support."