ANC polling shows voter stayaway may put metros out of reach

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s renewal agenda may not improve the party’s standing among voters enough to regain the metros it lost due to disillusionment with his predecessor.

The party’s own polling puts its support at 46% in Johannesburg, while a survey conducted by its main opponent, the DA, put it at 40%. Other surveys indicate Joburg may be too close to call, and ANC leaders who spoke to Business Day were resigned to falling short in Tshwane.

The ANC is also in danger of getting less than 50% support in Ekurhuleni, another metro in Gauteng, which is SA’s economic hub, BusinessLIVE reported.

If no party wins a clear majority in a metro, coalition governments would have to be formed, opening the door to smaller parties such as the EFF, Patriotic Alliance and ActionSA to negotiate terms in exchange for support.

ANC voters stayed away en masse in the municipal polls in 2016, handing the governing party its worst electoral performance and reshaping the political landscape. The DA joined forces with smaller parties like the EFF to form coalition governments, though most of those coalitions didn’t last.

Tshwane will test the DA’s slogan that it is better at governance, while the price of electricity and petrol and record unemployment will cost the ANC at the polls.

Internal and external surveys have led the ANC to roll out leaders, including former president Thabo Mbeki. Ramaphosa is expected to focus his efforts on Gauteng in the next week.

The ANC suffered in 2016 as it made scandal-hit former president Jacob Zuma the face of its campaign despite growing evidence of state capture. Its support plunged between 10 and 15 percentage points in some towns.

Ramaphosa was elected to the ANC presidency in December 2017 with a promise of cracking down on corruption and a revival of the economy. Instead the economy has weakened, with the outbreak of Covid-19 and lockdowns in 2020 leading to the loss of more than 1-million jobs.

A weak showing in the elections could embolden Ramaphosa’s rivals to launch a revolt and challenge him in the internal party leadership election conference in 2022.

New support in KwaZulu-Natal has balanced out the ANC’s decline in most other provinces since 2009. However, any further erosion threatens the ANC national tally of 57%. In the 1999 general elections, it won a two-thirds majority under Mbeki amid a strong economy and falling unemployment.

Gauteng accounts for more than 23% of SA’s 26-million registered voters, making support in the province’s three metros and local councils critical.

Data from polling agency Ipsos, released last month, shows the ANC could expect to pull in less than 50% of the vote across the country.

Not that things look much brighter for the DA. The main opposition party’s vote share is forecast to plummet to 17.9%, down 9 percentage points from 2016. The EFF is predicted to win 14.3% of the ballot.

BusinessLIVE