Contrary to the common belief that SA's public protests are driven by service delivery discontent, their biggest driver is, in fact, factional political party politics.
This is according to a study by the Government and Public Policy (GAPP) Think Tank, in partnership with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
The study, commissioned last September, looked at political protests in the country between 2004 and this year. It found that elite contestations within the ANC had become unmanageable through the party’s own structures and processes, and were spilling into the rest of society.
“Rather than a revolt of the poor, the rise in conflicts since 2009 is more likely the result of revolts in the ANC,” found the study. “What drives protests were elite contestations within the ANC; elite competition among senior ANC officials at all levels of government is what is driving political protest activity,” said Prof Ivor Chipkin, director of the government watchdog GAPP.
Chipkin authored most of the report, which was published on Monday.
Protests in SA have largely been seen as a result of poor service delivery or impoverished and unemployed people mobilising against the political economy.
“We say that is absolutely correct and there has been a huge increase in those events but what those events mask is that a lot of protest is organised around the elite contestation within the ANC,” said Chipkin.
The study found that protests were not a spontaneous action by the unemployed and the poor, but rather that political entrepreneurs were facilitating some of the violence.
“On the whole, however, there has been no mass uprising of the poor and of working people. Instead, those most prepared for dissent and violence are ruling party members contesting positions and seeking opportunities in the party and in government,” the study found.
Mass unemployment, poverty and relative deprivation provided fuel for political entrepreneurs to light the spark of protest and insurrection, the research found.
Describing the discovery as surprising and shocking, Chipkin said they found that protests stabilised and declined during most of former president Jacob Zuma’s second term between 2013 and 2017.
“Ironically, enough of the greatest stability in SA over the past 15 years has been in a period when SA was in most economic and political turmoil — that is the period of Jacob Zuma’s administration.”
This is a period associated with state capture, and a time when the country experienced massive damage to the economy, and a collapse of state institutions.
“How is it that particular period of huge constitutional and political crisis coincide with a period when political protests stabilised and even declined to some extent? Violence and repression were used to manage internal conflict within the ANC,” said Chipkin.
It found that patronage and repression were the most likely reasons protests stabilised and declined between 2013 and 2017.
Chipkin said, generally speaking, there was no improvement on service delivery during this period.
“We say it’s patronage. It coincided with the period of state capture and we say a huge amount of the rents collected through state capture were used to placate ANC elites throughout the country.
“It also coincides with a high period of assassinations and murders of ANC officials,” he added.
Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration has seen a rise in the number of protests. It is also a period of increasingly violent contestation within the ANC “and we say the situation is going to get worse as we go towards December”, said Chipkin.
Things may also worsen as the ANC declines and becomes less attractive to aspirant elites, who will pursue their interests through other means.
“Simply put, elite contestation is likely to become more violent as the cake shrinks.”
Researchers say the rise of protests from 2018 suggested that Ramaphosa did not have the authority in the ANC as did his predecessor. Ramaphosa appeared to be unable or not prepared “to use violence and patronage to the same extent as his predecessor”, they said.
To reduce the scope for patronage and inappropriate politicisation, public service reform should be expedited, including the professionalisation of public administrations, recommends the study.
“This will also improve the quality of services and goods provided by the state.”
Greater urgency and political support should be given to the security services if they are to manage the violent and criminal fallout of political conflict.
Research is also urgently needed on SA’s political elites — who they are, their modes of organisation, the basis of their support, and their attitudes and behaviours to democracy and parliamentarianism, recommends the research.
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