Mbalula, Mokonyane make showing at ANC Joburg conference to protect their 2027 interests

As horse-trading takes centre stage at the ANC’s greater Johannesburg regional conference on Thursday, the two national leaders who stand to gain from the result are said to be eyeing the negotiations very closely.

The Sunday Times understands that ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula and his deputy Nomvula Mokonyane are each looking to benefit from the conference, which would help secure their prospects in 2027.

Outgoing chairperson Dada Morero is a firm ally of Mbalula, while his opponent and outgoing deputy regional secretary Loyiso Masuku is allied to Mokonyane.

So far only Masuku’s camp has defined itself as a solid slate, with five individuals vying for the available five positions, while the rival side is said to still be negotiating between who to punt behind Morero with at least two candidates per position operating from their base.

A source said this was a recipe for disaster, as Morero’s hesitance on defining a line of march for his delegates could result in a division of the votes between three candidates, splitting their delegates and resulting in Masuku’s camp claiming victory.

“They are still gambling around, workshopping names, while others have defined themselves as a slate. Dada’s people are only set on him as a candidate, but every other position has multiple people from his faction contesting – it’s going to be dangerous for him to split votes like that. Unless, when nominated, one of the people from the camp contesting the same position, withdraws on the floor.”

With his current slate, Dada does not have the numbers. All his people aren’t bringing much to the table, so he must rethink his strategy going forward. There is talk that there might be surprise candidates who might be raised from the floor.

—  ANC insider

Mbalula was announced as a last-minute addition to the programme, set to take platform to address delegates. An insider said this was a clear indication that the Morero camp had “called in some reinforcement”.

“These guys were so relaxed, not taking into consideration how Mdu Manana’s deployment could spell trouble for them considering his recent spat with Mbalula. He could easily win this conference for Masuku, to spite Mbalula. [ANC Gauteng chair] Panyaza [Lesufi]’s firecracker address also set off some nerves yesterday. Dada can see this conference is slipping away eyijongile [while looking]. That’s why Mbaks [Mbalula] also wants platform — he is Dada’s last hope at a saviour.”

One insider said Masuku was in a pole position to win the conference, with Morero lagging behind on the first day of the conference. They said they believe the Morero faction is likely going to be recalibrated following Wednesday’s negotiations.

“With his current slate, Dada does not have the numbers. All his people aren’t bringing much to the table, so he must rethink his strategy going forward. There is talk that there might be surprise candidates who might be raised from the floor. For example, deputy chair Julius Maputla might be raised as a potential contender who can bring Dada some much-needed delegates. There is also Phosane Mngqibisa, who is also looking to be raised from the floor.

“They did not reach the threshold for their names to be on the ballot for the respective positions, but branches throughout the region are insisting their names be raised on the floor later today. This is partly because Masuku’s slate does not have people from Soweto or those who are born in Johannesburg. Soweto has over 40 wards. It’s our biggest constituency in numbers, so this can be a problem for Masuku in the end.”

The insider claimed that Maputla had over 30 delegates, whilst Phosane had over 60 delegates.

“If they’re to combine their numbers with the incumbent deputy chair, Simon Motha, Thuthukile Zuma and Bonolo [Ramokhele], who has reached the threshold, the conference can go either way.”

If Dada loses this conference, it places Mbalula in a difficult position because he will have lost his potential provincial secretary who would work for him towards 2027.

—  ANC insider

The result of the Johannesburg regional conference is likely to affect lobbying for the 2027 national conference. Morero, who is allied to Mbalula and Nomantu Nkomo-Ralehoko, will need the might of Johannesburg to negotiate for the provincial secretary position next year. Apart from Mokonyane, Masuku is believed to be allied to provincial heavyweight Lebogang Maile.

“If Dada loses this conference, it places Mbalula in a difficult position because he will have lost his potential provincial secretary who would work for him towards 2027. Then you have Loyiso, who wants Mama Action [Mokonyane] to ascend as deputy president. Nomvula needs the support of Gauteng for any negotiation with other provinces if she wants to be deputy president, so she needs people like Loyiso who can be able to lobby support for her,” the insider said.

The conference is expected to hear from outgoing officials presenting their organisational, political and treasurer’s reports, following which the plenary of delegates will engage on the inputs, raise questions and move for adoption.

Shortly after that, the electoral commission will advance the process of nomination of candidates, preparation of ballots and oversee the voting process.

While that unfolds, various commissions are going to break away to unpack the discussion document and engage with the material with the end goal of walking away with solid resolutions on pertinent issues facing the party and its membership.

Successfully elected regional officials will then be announced when the day concludes.