The ANC may have lost its electoral dominance, but it remains far from death and President Cyril Ramaphosa is “safer than critics think”.
This is according to political scientist and author Prof Susan Booysen and executive director and associate professor at the University of Johannesburg’s politics and international relations department Prof Bongani Ngqulunga.
They joined Sunday Times deputy editor Mike Siluma for a wide-ranging discussion on the party’s future, recorded while the ANC held its national general council (NGC) this week.
Booysen, who has been observing the NGC proceedings on the ground, said South Africans should pay close attention to the gathering.
“The ANC, despite its decline, is and remains the biggest party. It is a party in decline but a party far from collapse,” she said.
Ngqulunga argued the ANC’s internal culture continues to prioritise power dynamics inside the organisation over accountability to citizens.
“The ANC leadership may not be listening to ordinary South Africans, but it is listening to [internal] power holders, regions and branches. Those are the people who decide who leads the party.”
He said the party’s biggest challenge is the erosion of its once-strong intellectual backbone.
“They do not have new ideas. The intellectual capital the ANC depended on before 1994 is gone. The academics are now analysts, not ANC thinkers.”
Despite failing to secure an outright majority in the 2024 elections, Booysen said the ANC is setting the policy agenda within the government of national unity (GNU).
“Life is very easy for the ANC in the coalition. They are being challenged in court and forced to negotiate, but for a party without a majority, they have found a very easy ride.”
On Ramaphosa’s political future, amid murmurs of dissatisfaction within the ANC national executive committee, Booysen said the president remains secure.
“He’s well positioned to stay in power for a while. He has survived many assaults and is countering GNU critics quite consistently.”
Ngqulunga agreed, arguing Ramaphosa has long been undervalued as a political strategist.
“He is a lot more skilful than we give him credit for. His fate will depend on the next local government elections. Former president Jacob Zuma began losing power after the 2016 local elections.”
The two analysts expect the ANC to remain a central, but smaller, force in politics.
Ngqulunga believes South Africa has entered a permanently fragmented era: “We are not going to have a dominant party again. The ANC will shrink to a 20% to 30% party that requires coalitions.”
Booysen insisted the party is weakened but not close to political death: “It needs serious medical attention, but it’s not dying. The National Party took decades to disappear. The ANC can remain the biggest party, around 30% to 40%. By-election results show it is standing.”
The analysts argued the ANC’s struggles, weak renewal efforts, internal factionalism and shrinking intellectual influence will shape the country’s coalition era.
With Ramaphosa likely to stay in power through the storms, the next major turning point will be the 2026 local government elections.
The insights and more are unpacked in detail in the full conversation on the Sunday Times Politics Weekly podcast.
For more episodes, click here.
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The podcast is hosted by Sunday Times deputy editor Mike Siluma and produced by Bulelani Nonyukela.
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