KwaZulu-Natal social development MEC Mbali Shinga is digging in her heels, ignoring mounting pressure from her party, the National Freedom Party (NFP), which has told her to resign both as an MEC and a member of the provincial legislature.
Her refusal is frustrating Jacob Zuma’s attempts to capture the province even as it adds to the turmoil in the fragile government of provincial unity (GPU). Made up of the IFP, the ANC, the DA, and the NFP the GPU just weeks survived the MK Party’s failed December 15 motion of no confidence in premier Thami Ntuli.
NFP leader Ivan Barnes announced in Durban this week that the party was withdrawing from the GPU, citing betrayal and broken promises.
“We are pulling out of the GPU because political agreements were not honoured by coalition partners,” Barnes said.
“We were promised positions that never materialised, and our own member has defied the party line. We cannot continue under these conditions.”
Barnes later asked the Sunday Times to send him written questions about the broken promises, but he had not responded to these by the time of publication.
However, Shinga insists she was appointed by Ntuli and owes her loyalty to the people of KwaZulu-Natal, not Barnes.
“I will not resign, because I was elected to serve the people, not the whims of individuals,” she said.
Ntuli has backed her, praising her performance and refusing to remove her.
A close confidante of Shinga’s within the NFP leadership, who asked not to be named, said Shinga had been advised to stand her ground.
Without the NFP, the GPU loses its one-seat advantage, as each side will have 40 seats. That opens the door for MK to push harder for power
— Zakhele Ndlovu, UKZN politics lecturer
“The party is wrong to expect her to resign voluntarily while at the same time disciplining her on trumped-up charges. The MEC has been advised to stay put and await the outcome of the NFP disciplinary action. Until then, she is going nowhere.”
Independent analyst Prof Musa Xulu said the NFP’s battle against Shinga was “clumsy” and unlikely to succeed.
“Unless she herself resigns, it is highly unlikely she can be forced out. If she goes to court, she is most likely to win,” he said.
Meanwhile, ANC convener Mike Mabuyakhulu has written to Barnes requesting a meeting to discuss the NFP’s grievances.
KwaZulu-Natal ANC spokesman Fanle Sibisi said: “The ANC remains committed to the GPU as the best vehicle for stability, service delivery, socioeconomic development, good governance, and the wellbeing of the people of KwaZulu-Natal. We continue to monitor developments very closely, and if circumstances change, we will apply our collective wisdom accordingly.”
Shinga’s spokesperson, Thuba Vilane, said Shinga would allow her party and the provincial government to speak on her position.
“I have been advised that the MEC is currently not taking interviews,” Vilane said.
Wayne Sussman, an independent political and elections analyst, says the tussle sets the stage for “a gruesome battle for the heart and soul of KwaZulu-Natal ahead of the local government elections”.
He argues that the NFP’s fight “has more to do with positions than ideological differences”, noting its declining popularity and narrow support base in Nongoma, eDumbe and Abaqulusi. “Many of the NFP’s wounds are self-inflicted,” he said.
While the GPU partners together hold 41 seats, a potential MK Party, EFF and NFP alignment would muster only 40, leaving them unable to govern effectively, Sussman added.
“MK will want to use its opposition status to attack the GPU as taking KwaZulu-Natal backwards, while the IFP will hope Ntuli’s profile boosts its northern strongholds. The ANC faces losing hundreds of councillors, [while] the DA will focus on eThekwini and coastal municipalities, and there are no signs of an EFF recovery,” he said. “The other GPU parties will remain committed to each other in KwaZulu-Natal.”
Zakhele Ndlovu, a senior politics lecturer at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, believes the NFP’s withdrawal could tip the balance of power.
“Without the NFP, the GPU loses its one-seat advantage, as each side will have 40 seats. That opens the door for MK to push harder for power,” he said.
Ndlovu outlined three possible outcomes: the NFP could recommit to the GPU and restore stability, fresh negotiations could bring the MK Party into the reckoning, or the legislature could collapse altogether, forcing new elections under an administrator.
“The GPU is in serious trouble — it no longer has sufficient numbers,” he warned.
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