In Paris there were 12 top-eights, but only one was delivered by a debutant, Prudence Sekgodiso in the women’s 800m (8.3%).
Every other top-eight performer in Paris had competed at Tokyo 2020, including the men’s 4x100m and 4x400m relay teams, even if not all the members of the two outfits were there.
The key point is that the debutant-to-top-eight ratio at every other Games this millennium has fallen between 44.4% and 54.5% — Athens and Paris are the outliers.
So what happens when the percentage drops?
Athens was followed by the disaster of Beijing 2008, which suggests problems await South Africa at Los Angeles 2028 or beyond. Swimmer Smith has retired and Simbine, Hatherly and Van Dyk will be in their 30s.
Those who missed the podium in Paris will have to fire in four years’ time, specially if the youngsters don’t.
We could hope enough local sports administrators possess the will to create the required athlete-centred system to bring South African sport into the 21st century, though don’t hold your breath.
But for today, at least, Team South Africa and fans deserve to celebrate.
Team SA delivered great moments and history in Paris, but what’s the future?
Image: Arturo Holmes/Getty Images
Established stars Tatjana Smith, Akani Simbine and Alan Hatherly lifted Team South Africa to a six-medal haul at Paris 2024, doubling the country’s total from Tokyo 2020.
Even lesser-known competitors, such as javelin-thrower Jo-Ane van Dyk and Simbine’s 4x100m teammates, delivered memorable performances at Stade de France, where it all began with the rugby sevens bronze by the Blitzboks, written off after losing their opening two matches.
Perhaps the greatest moment of the showpiece was Smith’s 100m breaststroke gold, where she chased down four swimmers ahead of her on the final lap to touch first, though the most significant was her 200m silver which made her South Africa’s most decorated Olympian with four gongs.
Another display for the ages was the men’s 4x100m relay team, with Simbine steering them to silver with an awesome show of speed and power on the final leg.
Even his fourth place in the men’s 100m, where he ran a 9.82 national record to miss the podium by one-hundredth of a second in the fastest 100m final to date, will remain etched into the memory of fans.
Simbine, who also ended fourth in Tokyo, was the second South African to notch up two fourth places at the Olympics after racewalker Cecil McMaster.
But both found redemption in Paris, with McMaster getting a 10km bronze at the 1924 Games.
Going into Paris the country’s average haul across the 19 previous showpieces had been 4.68, but the class of 2024 lifted that to 4.75.
And yet the results here are well short of the country’s best performances.
South Africa finished tied 44th with Jamaica and Thailand on the medals table, where gold medals hold premium weight in determining position.
In the nine Olympics since readmission at Barcelona 1992, that is South Africa’s third-lowest ranking.
The highest was 20th at London 2012 with four golds, a silver and a bronze (4-1-1) followed by 27th at Atlanta 1996 (3-1-1).
The lowest was 70th at Beijing 2008 with a single silver and 55th at Sydney 2000 with two silvers and three bronze.
The team placed 52nd at Tokyo 2020.
In terms of total medals won, 2024 comes in at joint sixth out of 20. The three 10-hauls of Antwerp 1920 (3-4-3), Helsinki 1952 (2-4-4) and Rio 2016 (2-6-2) are on top, followed by the six-packs of Stockholm 1912 (4-2-0) and London 2012 (4-1-1).
The one gold, three silver and two bronze of Paris 2024 match Athens 2004 exactly, and this is not the only metric where these two Games were similar.
In Athens the country ranked 43rd on the table.
Then they achieved 11 top-eight placings, of which two were achieved by debutants (18%).
Paris 2024 sounds major warning for South African Olympic sport
In Paris there were 12 top-eights, but only one was delivered by a debutant, Prudence Sekgodiso in the women’s 800m (8.3%).
Every other top-eight performer in Paris had competed at Tokyo 2020, including the men’s 4x100m and 4x400m relay teams, even if not all the members of the two outfits were there.
The key point is that the debutant-to-top-eight ratio at every other Games this millennium has fallen between 44.4% and 54.5% — Athens and Paris are the outliers.
So what happens when the percentage drops?
Athens was followed by the disaster of Beijing 2008, which suggests problems await South Africa at Los Angeles 2028 or beyond. Swimmer Smith has retired and Simbine, Hatherly and Van Dyk will be in their 30s.
Those who missed the podium in Paris will have to fire in four years’ time, specially if the youngsters don’t.
We could hope enough local sports administrators possess the will to create the required athlete-centred system to bring South African sport into the 21st century, though don’t hold your breath.
But for today, at least, Team South Africa and fans deserve to celebrate.
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