Sharks seem to be on a hiding to nothing

Statistical analysis reveals the size of the mountain the Sharks have to scale when they square off against the Lions at Ellis Park in their Super Rugby eliminator on Saturday.

The Lions last weekend beat the Sharks in Durban to seal their spot at the top of the points table, while the Durban side seemed content, if not happy, to grab the last qualification spot.

They may have dodged a trip to Christchurch, but prospects for the visitors to Ellis Park hardly look encouraging.

Not only have the Sharks lost their last five Super Rugby clashes against the Lions, but on four occasions the margin of defeat exceeded 12 points.

And over the past year-and-a-half the Lions have been zealously territorial at Ellis Park.

Since their 50-17 thumping by the Hurricanes there last year, the Lions have been imperious at home. They have won 13 straight matches, racking up 634 points at an average of 48 points a match. They have not been too shabby away either, losing only to the Jaguares (twice) and in last year's final against the Hurricanes.

But they have not faced New Zealand opposition this season. Still, racking up one win after the other on home turf is not just coincidence.

"We are in a good position," said stand-in captain Jaco Kriel. "The confidence is high. You can't just go on confidence. You still have to go out and do the work. On the day it is zero-zero. You can't get comfortable."

Coach Johan Ackermann agrees. "The main thing is we were in this situation last year and we are back at home. It is nice to be at home but it is not going to do the job for us if we don't pitch up and put in a better performance than we did in Durban," said Ackermann.

He argues his team's recent record against the Sharks should not count for much. In fact, the Sharks proved formidable when the Lions last met them at Ellis Park. In the end the hosts prevailed 34-29, but they were made to sweat.