MARK KEOHANE | Bulls need a Glasgow upset to earn a home semifinal

The Bulls will know on Friday night whether there is any possibility of a home semifinal in the United Rugby Championship. But it will take No 8 beating No 1 in Glasgow for the Bulls to be the beneficiaries.

This assumes the Bulls beat Munster at Loftus in Pretoria in the early 1.30pm kick-off on Saturday.

Home ground advantage in the URC play-offs has not been as dominant as one would expect. Historically, there have been some big upset results in the semifinals and finals.

The Bulls beat Leinster in Dublin in the semifinal in the first season and Munster beat Leinster in Dublin in the semifinal in the second season.

Munster went on to win the tournament a week later, beating the Stormers 19-14 in the final in front of 56,300 people at the DHL Stadium in Cape Town.

And Glasgow travelled to Pretoria two seasons ago to beat the Bulls in the final.

Winning away from home can be done. If one assesses the four play-offs, Connacht will feel they are good enough to go to Glasgow and get a result, while Loftus won’t hold any fears for Munster.

The Irish club lost by just three points in Pretoria in a league match this season. The Bulls won 34-31 in a match that could so easily have been won by Munster, who have beaten the Bulls in Pretoria in the URC.

Connacht, along with the Bulls, have been the most successful in the back end of the league, with Connacht’s win against the Stormers in Cape Town being particularly impressive.

The two teams have met three times in Pretoria and the Bulls lost the first match and won the next two. But one score separated the teams in all the matches.

Munster are struggling with the unavailability of some of their biggest Test-name players, especially No 10 Jack Crowley, while the Bulls are near full-strength.

Everything suggests the Bulls, at home, will be too strong, but in this competition one can never discount the unexpected.

Which brings me to Connacht. They have played Glasgow in Glasgow twice in the past four years, losing by three and two points respectively. The scores were 22-19 and 29-27.

They also beat Glasgow in the league match this season in Galway, scoring in the final move to triumph 15-10.

There will be belief from Connacht, who are led by former England and Racing 92 coach Stuart Lancaster.

Connacht, along with the Bulls, have been the most successful in the back end of the league, with Connacht’s win against the Stormers in Cape Town being particularly impressive.

Lancaster has improved the Connacht collective immeasurably this season and they have shown an ability to win on the road.

A Glasgow win will set up a home semifinal against the Bulls or Munster.

On the other side of the draw the Stormers in Cape Town should beat Cardiff. Leinster, smarting from their Investec Champions Cup final defeat to Bordeaux, will beat South Africa’s Lions.

The Lions have been ravaged by injury to three of their best players and Leinster, loaded with Test players, will be too strong at home.

The Lions lost 31-7 a fortnight ago to a Leinster team missing 12 of their regular 1^st XV. Logic says that if you can’t beat the Leinster B team, you aren’t beating the Leinster A team.

Leinster finished second in the league after the Stormers failed to win their last two matches against Ulster in Belfast and Cardiff in Cardiff.

Stormers coach John Dobson has been bullish about his team correcting the result in Cardiff, but there is belief within Cardiff that they can do the double over the Stormers.

The Stormers, who started the season with eight successive wins in the leagues, won just four of their last 10 matches. They are a team who this season have combined the brilliant with the awful and the question this week is which Stormers team will pitch up on Saturday.

There is enough quality in the Stormers match 23 to win at home, even if not at their best, but that will be of little comfort if they must travel to Dublin a week later to play Leinster.