The number of new coronavirus infections a day in Africa is climbing steadily towards the peak of its first wave of infections in July, which reached about 14,000 new cases a day, said the director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control (CDC), Dr John Nkengasong, on Thursday.
From July, the number of new cases dropped to an average of 7,000 a day, but since then the numbers have been rising to about 10,000 to 12,000 cases, he said during his weekly Covid-19 briefing.
“We expect the numbers to continue increasing and my fear is that we will probably see the same peak of new infections a day as in July,” said Nkengasong.
The Africa CDC director said they hoped in the next two to three years that about 60% of the continent’s population would be vaccinated.
But now less than 32% of countries are ready to deploy a vaccine, he said. “We do not want it to take four to five years. This is a virus we cannot live with.”
Nkengasong noted however: “Our hospitals have not been flooded with patients like in the US and Europe. They are not there, not dying (in the numbers predicted).”
We do not want a vaccine to take four to five years. This is a virus we cannot live with.
— Africa CDC director Dr John Nkengasong
Three million Covid-19 deaths were forecast for Africa this year, but by Thursday 52,490 had been reported.
“A large number of the population across multiple countries in Africa have antibodies against viruses that look like SARS-CoV-2,” said Nkengasong, reporting on a new study published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.
“Compared to blood samples in the US, it is striking to see the level of antibodies to similar viruses (to SARS-CoV-2) which you do not find in the US population.”
But he stressed the results showed a correlation between the antibodies and better outcomes on the continent; it was not a causal study.
“One of the greatest obstacles at the moment on the continent is misinformation and the impact of this. Collectively we are working to establish accurate information.”
To this end, the Africa CDC supported the launch on Thursday of the Africa Infodemic Response Alliance with the World Health Organisation (WHO).
Nkengasong said, for example, misinformation was being reported that vaccines, such as the 95%-effective Pfizer vaccine approved by the UK, were not safe.
“There are no issues around safety and efficacy. It is very clear it has gone through all three phases ... and been tested on a large number of people.
“If I had my way today to take a flight to the UK and get the vaccine, I would do it now,” said Nkengasong. “I would be the first person, me and my family.”
But instead, the Africa CDC director is playing a pivotal role in trying to secure access to Covid-19 vaccines for 60% of the population in Africa, starting with the 20% most at risk: health workers, the elderly and people with comorbidities.
Nkengasong was speaking from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which has seen a 22% increase in new cases on average over the past four weeks and 100% increase in deaths.
A large number ... across multiple countries in Africa have antibodies against viruses that look like SARS-CoV-2.
— Africa CDC director Dr John Nkengasong
Of the most populated countries on the continent, SA is in third place with the most new cases over the past four weeks, after the DRC and Egypt (a 21% increase in new cases).
Deaths in SA had gone up 10% on average.
Per million population, reported new cases are increasing most in Morocco, Cape Verde, Libya, Tunisia and SA.
By Thursday, 22 million people had been tested for coronavirus, up from 300,000 in June.
Nkengasong appealed to people in Africa to overcome Covid-19 fatigue, which he has been seeing across countries, including in the DRC, with a drop in mask wearing.
“As we prepare for festivities, we do expect the numbers (of infections) to increase in January and February, and we need to have an honest conversation about this, about why we should behave differently during this period of festivities,” he said.
“We expect movement from capital cities to remote areas and our greatest fear for the holiday season is that this can drive the pandemic.
“Let’s have a safe end-of-the-year celebration or the gains we have worked so hard to achieve over the last few months may be eroded,” he said, appealing to people to wear masks, wash hands and practise social distancing.
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