The Delta variant is driving the steep third wave of Covid-19 across nearly half the countries in Africa, where deaths jumped by 43% in the past week.
Africa CDC director, Dr John Nkengasong, said on Thursday that the highly transmissible Delta variant — identified in 15 countries and rampaging through many including Uganda, the DRC and SA — was dominant.
More than 5.7 million cases of Covid-19 and almost 149,000 deaths had been reported in Africa by July 8. Thirteen of the 23 countries are experiencing a “more severe third wave”, he said at his weekly briefing.
Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa, said the third wave’s peak had overtaken that of the second wave.
She said: “And still we see the numbers per week growing, compared to the week before. About 16 countries are in resurgence, where every week there are more and more infections.”
University of KwaZulu-Natal geneticist Prof Tulio de Oliveira said that variants, such as Delta, were “causing havoc in Africa”, triggering an explosion of new cases and higher death rates.
“Delta has begun to dominate not only SA but all of Africa’s infections, at about 75% (of samples sequenced),” he said, moving his hands up, to show how the Delta variant had started in the south and moved north, displacing other variants along the way.
The collective of African scientists doing genomic surveillance of variants across the continent has stepped up surveillance, he said.
“At the moment no country in Africa has detected the Lambda variant,” he added.
“There is no evidence of vaccine escape (from variants). More than ever, this is the time to vaccinate,” said De Oliveira, at a WHO Africa region briefing on Thursday.
“If countries are left behind on vaccinations, this just gives one more chance for variants to emerge.”
Only 1.19% of Africans are fully vaccinated, the Africa CDC reported on Thursday.
Covax MD Aurelia Nguyen reiterated the importance of Covid-19 vaccinations to prevent variants. “The longer this virus circulates, the more likely that contagious variants will continue, and others emerge,” she said.
If countries are left behind on vaccinations, this just gives one more chance for variants to emerge.
— University of KwaZulu-Natal geneticist, professor Tulio de Oliveira
Nguyen said global supply constraints had limited Africa’s vaccine rollout, but Covax was on track to get 520 million doses to the continent by early 2022, and had diversified its portfolio to up to nine vaccines.
Vaccine shortages across Africa earlier this year were aggravated by India’s decision not to export Covid-19 shots, decimating Covax’s supply line.
But there is “light at the end of the tunnel” for vaccine supply, with 1.6 million doses delivered in the last six weeks and more Covax deliveries and donations on the way, said Moeti.
Covax recently delivered 1,392 million Pfizer doses to SA, 228,000 AstraZeneca donations (via France) to Zambia and, on Thursday, 1.2 million doses of AZ to Kenya and 408,000 doses of AZ to Somalia.
“With much larger deliveries due in July and August, we must use the time to rapidly expand the rollout,” Moeti said, mentioning the need to expand the cold chain beyond capital cities.
WHO immunisation and vaccine development programme manager Dr Richard Mihigo said 11 countries had “almost used up their doses” and would receive more donations.
“Starting in September, we will see a dramatic increase in the number of doses,” he promised.
SA’s vaccination delivery to its citizens has gradually improved relative to other African countries, pushing it up to fourth place — but it has injected only 54% of its available doses into arms, compared to the African average of 75%.
Morocco and Nigeria have used up 99% of their available supply, with Morocco far ahead in inoculating 24% of its population.
An Africa CDC team has returned recently from the Seychelles, where it joined public health officials in investigating surging infections in the island nation, which has relatively high vaccine coverage.
A preliminary analysis showed that the new infections were being driven by variants, said Seychelles public health commissioner Dr Jude Gedeon. It is likely they were imported by tourists on whom the Seychelles depends, after a rapid lifting of their Covid-19 restrictions.
The Seychelles is reporting several variants of concern, including the Alpha, Beta and Delta variants, with the Beta variant dominant, Nkengasong said of the early findings.
“It is safe to say the surge is because of the rapid introduction of new variants and an eagerness to balance saving lives and saving economies,” he said.
Across Africa new infections rose on average by 22% in the past week, and 28% on average in the past month to July 4. By region, the trends show:
- 40% increase in the south
- 22% increase in the north
- 18% increase in the west
- 7% increase in the east; and
- 19% decrease in the central region
Deaths have risen steeply, with Egypt, Sudan, Somalia and the Sahrawi Republic reporting a case fatality rate above 5%, among those 23 countries reporting death rates above the global average of 2.2%.
Nkengasong said: “The challenge we have so far is with the delay in vaccines. A continent of 1.2 billion people, with only 1.19% of its population fully vaccinated, doesn’t have a chance in any way of blunting this wave.
“Will there be another wave? I want to assure the continent that there will be. Tunisia is already going through its fourth wave.
“Unless we can roll out vaccines at scale and at speed, we will continue to see this.”
But the Africa CDC chief said he believes in people’s resilience and urged them to keep implementing public health measures vigorously to prevent infections.
On Thursday, the Africa CDC and MTN jointly launched the One More Push campaign to reinforce the importance of mask-wearing and vaccine acceptance.
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