A report on unnatural deaths in SA during the second alcohol ban shows the devastating effect that booze has on the country.
Researcher Kai Barron of the Berlin School of Economics, says the data showed “the five-week sales ban reduced the number of unnatural deaths in SA by 21 per day, which is substantial”.
This is about 740 alcohol-related unnatural deaths over the five-week period.
Presenting his results on a webinar hosted by Economic Research Southern Africa, Barron said the research focused on the second ban that began on July 13, because it was during level three during which there was also a period with the same regulations but alcohol was flowing freely.
This allowed for a fair comparison.
This drop in unnatural mortality represents a 14% reduction, and the effects are particularly stark for men: the decrease in unnatural deaths of females was zero, and among the men, of those 21 average deaths that were prevented, about 11 were younger men (between the ages of 15 and 34).
The data shows that pre-2020 unnatural deaths, a level to which the country has returned since the ban was lifted, are always highest over weekends and towards the end and beginning of each month.
There are generally 50,000 unnatural deaths per year in SA, and four out of five of those deaths are of men.
There are generally 50,000 unnatural deaths per year in SA, and four out of five of those deaths are of men.
Barron says it is “difficult to extrapolate if the effects of a short-term ban would be the same as a long-term ban”.
However, if the effect was the same, about 7,665 unnatural deaths could be prevented in a single year.
Data suggesting booze was fuelling unnatural deaths after the first ban were downplayed by many on social media who said other elements of the lockdown (level five during that first ban) were the cause.
But the new data show this is not the case.
“We have two periods both within the level three policy period with a similar set of regulations in place but in the second half of the level three policy period, there is a ban and in the first period of level three, there isn’t,” he explains.
Most regulations stayed relatively constant, with the main exception being the curfew.
But, says Barron, the data shows the curfew did not play a role because on “August 18, when the alcohol ban was terminated, the curfew remained in place but unnatural mortality returned to pre-2020 levels”.
Looking at daily unnatural mortality from January 1 2017 to September 13 2020, Barron’s data show “a striking pattern that is incredibly regular from year to year — every week there is a peak on the weekends”.
Between March and June this year, there was no effect of the weekend on unnatural mortality.
As soon as the first ban was lifted in the first part of level three, “you started seeing the weekend effect again”.
He adds that another very regular pattern appears: the months of the year don’t make a difference, except in December when unnatural mortality always rises.
According to stats from the World Health Organisation, the world average alcohol consumption is 6.4 litres of pure alcohol per person in a year (that’s not alcohol drinks but just the pure alcohol content of those drinks).
In SA, it is 16 litres per year per man, and among women only, 2.7 litres.
Also in SA, heavy episodic drinking is seen in one third of males but only 6% of females, according to the WHO.
In SA, heavy episodic drinking is seen in one third of males but only 6% of females, according to the WHO.
Barron says he hopes his data is taken up by policymakers and that the emphasis should be on “the impact of the presence of alcohol on society during normal times rather than looking at the impact of a ban”.
He says his research focuses on unnatural mortality only, and that policymakers should consider it in conjunction with other factors like the impact on hospitals, gender-based violence, babies in utero exposed to alcohol, and other behavioural considerations like decision-making, work productivity and so on.
“We are only discussing a single dimension here, and that is unnatural deaths and how that can guide policymakers — but there are other harms and benefits to be considered,” he says, adding that it is not just about a blanket ban but on “consumption” which can be controlled in other ways too.
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