Rookie mistakes: Why NDZ’s cig ban was a disaster before it even began

SA’s lockdown ban on tobacco sales was doomed to failure, and 93% of smokers maintained their habit by paying up to 250% more for illicit supplies. 

These are some of the findings from an online survey of more than 23,000 smokers carried out by the Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products at the University of Cape Town. 

Announcing the ban on March 25, co-operative governance and traditional affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma said sharing cigarettes and pipes posed greater risks of Covid-19 transmission. She also referred to the presumption that smokers who became infected were more likely to develop serious illness. 

“The rationale at the outset I think was fair,” said UCT professor Corné van Walbeek, one of the authors of the study published this week in the British Medical Journal publication Tobacco Control.

“To think smokers have greater vulnerability actually makes sense. The virus attacks the lungs and smokers are more likely to be vulnerable.” 

But for the ban to have had any chance of working, extensive preparations were needed and they were not done. 

“You have give or take 8 million cigarette smokers in SA,” said Van Walbeek, adding that even if most smokers wanted to quit, doing so without support is difficult. 

With SA under lockdown, there was little chance of smokers kicking the habit. The study found that just 9% of people who had smoked before lockdown managed to quit. 

It was always clear the ban would be lifted. So there was not that urgency for people to quit because they would never be able to find a cigarette again.

—  Prof Corné van Walbeek of UCT

SA, India and Botswana were the only countries in the world to implement smoking bans as part of their Covid-19 response. India lifted its ban after six weeks and Botswana at 12 weeks. 

SA’s ban, however, lasted five months during which the illegal cigarette trade boomed. “We have a highly developed illicit market in SA,” said Van Walbeek, adding that a previous study showed that some 30% of the cigarettes smoked in 2017 were sold at such prices that they were probably illicit. 

In May, Cape Town resident Duncan Napier became a reluctant hero after his Facebook page Unite Against the Tobacco Ban drew support from all over the country and culminated in a march to parliament.

Napier said he was under no illusion that smoking was unhealthy, but rather than helping people give up and stand together, the ban had the opposite effect. 

“It pulled the rug out from under people’s feet,” he said. “It makes you want to rebel against what [government] is trying to achieve.” 

Napier said he would have backed the government’s hope that the ban would help people stop smoking, if there had been more support for anyone who wanted to quit. “Their silence was the biggest disappointment,” he said. 

The ban had especially hurt people on low wages who were paying R150 for a pack of cigarettes, he added. Van Walbeek said the government would have done better to raise the excise tax on cigarettes.

“We know people respond to changes in price, especially if this was a permanent change,” he said. 

“It was always clear the ban would be lifted. So there was not that urgency for people to quit because they would never be able to find a cigarette again.” 

The cooperative governance department did not respond to requests for comment.