ANALYSIS | Cyril set to reward allies – and give SA one big shock – in cabinet reshuffle

The much-anticipated cabinet reshuffle by President Cyril Ramaphosa appears imminent, with insiders in government and the ANC saying he has concluded all the consultations he needed to make before announcing the changes.

But what are the changes the president is likely to make?

Recent history shows that though lobbyists, especially within the ruling party, play important roles in influencing changes, the final word is always the president’s and lobby groups can be overruled at the last minute. Ramaphosa’s predecessor, Jacob Zuma — who became infamous for making executive changes at the slightest provocation — was known for changing his mind on the removal of a minister or the appointment of their replacement at the 11th hour, leaving his inner circle in a spin. Of course this may have been largely due to the influence of the Guptas, who were regarded as the power behind the throne at the Union Buildings.

Ramaphosa hasn’t made many executive changes since taking over from Zuma in February 2018, so it is still unclear what his preferred approach is. However, if his May 2019 cabinet announcement after the general elections was anything to go by, he too prefers to play his cards close to his chest.

But conversations with people in his inner circles, in the ANC and government, indicate the biggest changes in the coming reshuffle will be in the security cluster, whose credibility was heavily eroded after the recent riots.

In a move that is likely to surprise many, police minister Bheki Cele looks likely to keep his post, even though his quarrels with national police commissioner Khehla Sitole are said to be hindering police work.

There has been talk of the president appointing his close political associate Senzo Mchunu as state security minister responsible for the country’s intelligence services. However, this appointment was delayed as Mchunu was leading government’s delicate negotiations with public sector unions over wage hikes. Now that Mchunu has finally averted a possible strike and delivered a one-year deal, insiders say the president is planning to have him replace Ayanda Dlodlo.

“It will be good to get Mchunu a higher position. He proved himself when he was MEC of education in KZN,” said a presidency insider.

Dlodlo and police minister Bheki Cele were at the centre of an embarrassing quarrel soon after the riots, on whether the state security ministry gave intelligence information to the police that would have helped them prevent the looting. The argument between the two left Ramaphosa’s administration looking weak and in the dark over what had happened.

With Mchunu in the portfolio, Ramaphosa would have a trusted lieutenant running the country’s security services. In the run-up to the ANC’s Nasrec campaign, Mchunu was one of the few KwaZulu-Natal leaders who broke with the province and backed Ramaphosa, instead of the province’s then preferred candidate, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. In return for his support, Ramaphosa backed Mchunu’s bid to become the party’s secretary-general. He subsequently lost out to now-suspended Ace Magashule in the race for the position.

It was not clear from the insiders whether Dlodlo would be moved back to public service, a position she has held before, or another post in the executive.

Also likely to lose her current post is defence minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, a long-serving member of the executive who has been in government since Nelson Mandela’s tenure. Her handling of the crisis, especially publicly contradicting her boss on whether the riots were part of a failed insurrection, has led to many losing confidence in her. The most popular candidate for her replacement is former uMkhonto weSizwe guerrilla and national assembly speaker Thandi Modise. It is not clear, however, if the president can convince Modise to move to cabinet, given that the post of speaker is much more senior than a cabinet minister.

However, in a move that is likely to surprise many, police minister Bheki Cele looks likely to keep his post, even though his quarrels with national police commissioner Khehla Sitole are said to be hindering police work.

The minister in the presidency, a position that became vacant last year after the death of Jackson Mthembu, looks set to be given to former Ekurhuleni mayor and current ANC MP Mondli Gungubele.

For months there has been speculation about finance minister Tito Mboweni, due to the perception that when the president convinced him to take the job the plan was not for him to finish a five-year term.

Insiders insist that the president’s ideal candidate for finance minister remains Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago, but he continues to refuse the job.

There is now talk of ANC economics guru Enoch Godongwana being appointed to the hot seat.

Unlikely to be retained in the cabinet, argues one insider, is human settlements and water affairs minister Lindiwe Sisulu, who is said to have grown close to “RET forces”, as she allegedly prepares to launch her presidential campaign ahead of the ANC’s national conference later next year.