SA’s climate is likely to become more extreme, with implications for people’s health and the economy.
A study by a PhD student at the University of Pretoria’s (UP) geography, geoinformatics and meteorology department has found the country is experiencing more maximum temperature records than expected and that this trend appears to be accelerating.
Charlotte McBride, of the SA Weather Service (SAWS), had her paper, Trends in probabilities of temperature records in the non-stationary climate of South Africa, published in the International Journal of Climatology.
The paper was co-authored by study supervisor Andries Kruger of SAWS and co-supervisor Liesl Dyson, associate professor of meteorology at UP.
McBride’s research supports a recently published report from the intergovernmental panel on climate change, which indicates that the climate outlook for Africa looks bleak in terms of the increasingly high probability of extreme maximum temperatures and heatwaves projected to occur in the 21st century.
“I investigated record-breaking temperature events over SA by using weather station data from 25 stations across the country,” McBride said.
Daily temperature data for the period 1951 to 2019 was used.
The analyses showed that significantly more records were broken than expected over a particular time period.
Also, in the most recent decade, the measured number of maximum temperature records became progressively greater compared with the expected number.
“We therefore have evidence that SA is not only warming, but that records are being broken more frequently than expected,” said McBride.
“This implies our climate is becoming more extreme. My research shows that most stations broke more highest daily maximum records than expected in a climate that isn’t under the influence of climate change.”
Even when this influence was taken into account, there were certain stations that still broke many more high-temperature records.
“For example, Pretoria was expected to break an annual average of nine maximum temperature records per year over the past 10 years of the study, when taking into account the warming taking place at that station,” McBride explained.
“However, it broke on average 15 records per year. While future warming is dependent on the amount of future greenhouse-gas emissions, we have already committed our atmosphere to substantial warming in the near-to-medium term.
“Therefore, it is necessary that climate-sensitive sectors of society prepare themselves for an ever-increasing occurrence of unprecedented record high temperatures.
“This is of concern as higher temperatures can affect crop yields and contribute to the spread of pests and pathogens.
Farmers might need to review the types of crops or crop varieties they plant, to ensure they are suited to a warmer climate. Town planners and the construction industry will need to take the warming into account when they plan and construct infrastructure.
— Charlotte McBride, of the SA Weather Service
“From a human health point of view, high temperatures can cause heat-related illnesses, which put certain sectors of the population, such as the elderly, very young and people with certain pre-existing medical conditions, at risk.
“There is a real need to address climate change and for governments and the public to play their part in reducing their carbon footprint.
“This includes making use of renewable energy sources, saving water, recycling, eating less meat, supporting locally grown produce and supporting tree planting initiatives.”
The research recommends that policymakers, government departments, non-profit organisations, disaster managers, farmers and developers of infrastructure need a better understanding of the consequences and risks of the increased frequency of record-breaking temperature events so their response strategies are more effective.
“Farmers might need to review the types of crops or crop varieties they plant to ensure they are suited to a warmer climate. Town planners and the construction industry will need to take the warming into account when they plan and construct infrastructure.
“Health services need to be in a position to respond to increased cases of heat-related illnesses.
This also means investment and funding need to be more focused on creating adaptive capacity, rather than just responding to disasters, she added.
“More preparation is needed for climate extremes such as the breaking of high-temperature records, rather than waiting for them to occur, then trying to address the consequences.”
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