At least 17 reported attacks by the Islamic State affiliate in northern Mozambique have taken place since last Friday, with citizens suffering “significant casualties” and at least two victims being beheaded.
On June 17, an attack in Nampula province marked one of the few incidents where insurgent activity has taken place outside of Cabo Delgado and constitutes the first reported insurgent attack in Nampula.
Experts now fear the insurgency’s expansion towards the south has started.
Institute for Security Studies senior analyst Willem Els says he called this attack months ago.
“There were quite a number of Nampula residents arrested by security forces. The insurgents won’t go recruiting in an area where they know they have very little support. If they are recruiting there it stands to reason they have strong support. Four months ago I warned that Nampula will be one of the insurgents’ next stops,” Els said.
He believes the SADC military operation (SAMIM) is failing.
“They do not have enough boots on the ground or air support. Their intelligence is also inadequate. Two Oryx helicopters cannot even begin to provide adequate air cover for all the military needs in the theatre.
“The insurgents know they have space and difficult terrain on their side. They keep one large force ready for their intended target and the rest of their fighters break up into smaller groups. These groups strike widely, forcing the SADC force to spread thinly reacting on these strikes and leaving their primary target open for attack by the larger force,” Els said.
“SAMIM goes in, bloodies the insurgents’ noses and dominates the area. Once they are in, the insurgents strike elsewhere. And this is the pattern.”
He says he would not refer to the insurgents as extremist Islamic fighters.
“They do, however, absolutely use Islam as a vehicle to further their agenda and plans.”
Another problem, according to Els, is the lack of identifiable leaders.
You need to first identify the head of the snake before you can chop it off. There have been several names mentioned in the intelligence community but nobody has been officially identified as the terrorist leader.
— Willem Els, Institute for Security Studies senior analyst
“You need to first identify the head of the snake before you can chop it off. There have been several names mentioned in the intelligence community but nobody has been officially identified as the terrorist leader,” he said.
He says the insurgents are becoming more sophisticated as the conflict drags on.
“What started in 2017 as unhappy civilians with machetes has now progressed to the point where the SAMIM forces recently recovered some improvised explosives that can be activated using a mobile phone.”
He says the insurgents have also started using landmines.
“According to our sources on the ground in Cabo Delgado province, the insurgents have been receiving a steady stream of reinforcements.
“A lot of these new members are trained in the DRC and enter Mozambique through Tanzania,” said Els.
He believes the conflict will start spreading to the south.
“It is inevitable. Who knows, they might already have active cells in Maputo.”
An intelligence source with agents on the ground in Mozambique, who prefers not to be identified, agrees with Els about the possible expansion of the insurgency.
“Between last Friday and this Tuesday there have been 17 confirmed attacks, with ISCAP [Islamic State Central Africa Province] claiming credit. Cabo Delgado is not the only game in the north anymore. The attack in Nampula, one of the first outside Cabo Delgado and the first in Nampula itself, is only the first step towards Pemba in the south, which is a giant leap towards Maputo,” the intelligence source said.
He says the value of Pemba cannot be underestimated.
“It is the logistical supply hub for almost the entire region with a port, decent roads and most of the military stationed there.”
Cabo Delgado is not the only game in the north anymore. The attack in Nampula, one of the first outside Cabo Delgado and the first in Nampula itself, is only the first step towards Pemba in the south, which is a giant leap towards Maputo.
— Intelligence source
He says the insurgents operate in small groups independent of each other.
“They operate entirely without logistical support, mostly living off the land, so to speak. From their command they receive training, weapons, ammunition, money and instructions. For the rest they are dependent on local residents and villages they overrun,” said the source.
Another worrying factor is the prison facilities in Pemba where captured insurgents are being housed.
“Should the insurgents attack and overrun these prisons, their ranks could be further reinforced, posing a larger security risk to Pemba despite the potential for security forces to be deploying in the city.
“Insights from our agents on the ground and other privileged sources also note that, alternatively, the current push to the south might form part of a campaign to only retrieve captured insurgents that could help to boost the insurgency’s capacity for another potential target.”
At this stage, however, the conflict zone remains extremely volatile.
“The insurgency’s unpredictability means that it remains to be seen how the current attacks in the south of the province would realise into a larger objective,” the intelligence source said.
He also believes that the insurgency might not be an extremist Islamic ambition but that the “partnership” is one of convenience.
“Religion is definitely part of the picture. When the insurgents attacked a pretty much deserted graphite mine last week they killed two of the three security guards on duty. The third they released because he could recite verses from the Koran.”
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