What we can assume from the figures released by Eskom on Thursday is that stage 6 load-shedding will be SA’s default position going into winter, increasing to higher stages with every unplanned outage and unit breakdown — but unlikely to ever really dip below that debilitating bar.
The power utility said at its winter outlook media briefing that it was entering winter with a shortfall of about 6,500MW. It has 26,500MW in capacity against a forecast peak demand of 33,000MW.
Let’s do the sums. A single stage of load-shedding requires Eskom to shed up to 1,000MW of electricity. That means stage 6 needs between 5,001MW and 6,000MW of energy to be shed. Stage 7 requires 6,001 to 7,000MW being cut.
And so on and so forth. You get the picture.
Yet often the situation is worse than many of us realise. Eskom has at times been accused of “camouflaging” the severity of available supply by differentiating between load-shedding and load curtailment, which basically entails strangling power to large users when the grid is under strain. This can cut more than 1,000MW from the supply — equivalent to one or even two stages of load-shedding. But Eskom does not regard this as load-shedding and therefore it is not reflected in the official load-shedding stages.
This happened last month, when 7,072MW was cut from the grid, yet SA officially remained on stage 6 load-shedding, rather than stage 8, which is what it actually was.
You can argue that it’s six of one and half a dozen of the other, but ultimately what this number juggling means is that South Africa is often in a much more precarious situation than general consumers realise.
And winter will only exacerbate this. Some energy experts have warned of South Africa potentially entering stage 10 this winter.
As the hours of load-shedding increase, so too do the tempers of frustrated residents, many of whom have to endure days — and at times weeks — of no electricity due to sub stations tripping when power is restored, or when thieves take advantage of blackouts to pillage these stations for cables, leaving entire communities in the dark.
Protests are likely to increase this winter, when the chill starts to bite and the nights are long and cold. They are also likely to become increasing violent and destructive.
Fed-up residents are taking to the streets to voice their anger.
On Tuesday last week, police had to barricade roads when some frustrated Soweto residents burnt tyres to protest over ongoing power outages in the area.
That same evening, residents in Macassar, Cape Town, protested over power outages caused by cable theft and vandalism. A community leader reportedly said cable theft from substations during load-shedding was behind the prolonged power outages.
Also last week, violence broke out when thousands of furious community members in Emalahleni, Mpumalanga, closed down the N4 and stoned the mayor because of ongoing power and water cuts.
Earlier this year, Boksburg residents blockaded roads and burnt tyres due to ongoing power cuts, while protesters in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, blocked two main roads demanding electricity and a change to rubbish collection services. They say they have been waiting many years for electricity.
These examples are just a fraction of the number of public protests over load-shedding and the extended power outages they often cause due to ailing infrastructure that cannot handle being switched on and off with such frequency.
Protests are likely to increase this winter, when the chill starts to bite and the nights are long and cold. They are also likely to become increasingly violent and destructive.
Adding to the bleak outlook, eThekwini announced this week that from May 25, it will no longer have reduced levels of load-shedding as the municipality introduces a new and revised power cut schedule.
The municipality has been on a reduced schedule due to damage to infrastructure caused by the floods in KwaZulu-Natal in April last year. Yet much of the metro’s infrastructure is not yet repaired to pre-flood levels, and so residents can brace for a double whammy.
Meanwhile, the bickering between former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter and government continues, with public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan telling parliament this week that pretty much nothing had been done to try to get to the truth about De Ruyter’s untested allegations of high-ranking politicians being involved in corruption at Eskom.
All these elements in South Africa’s electricity catastrophe point to one thing: a convergence of crises that will leave the country’s economy further decimated, the psych of our people further damaged and faith in our leaders to steer us out of this disaster fully extinguished.
Brace yourself. It’s going to be a long, cold and dark winter.
Support independent journalism by subscribing to the Sunday Times. Just R20 for the first month.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.