After six years, the insurgency in northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province might have started to target civilians less frequently, but intelligence experts say even the recent death of a key insurgent leadership figure has not put the brakes on the conflict.
According to TimesLIVE Premium’s intelligence sources, the death in August of Bonamade Ibn Omar has caused a leadership vacuum in the upper echelons of the Isis-linked insurgency.
He [Bonamade Ibn Omar] had been at the core of the insurgency, with Focus Group’s source network pointing to his involvement since the first insurgent attacks in October 2017
— Tertius Jacobs, head analyst for Mozambique at the Focus Group
Some experts on the conflict say the leadership tussle is still ongoing, while others believe Omar’s position has already been filled.
Tertius Jacobs, the head analyst for Mozambique at the Focus Group, a South African-based intelligence operation, said while the frequency of attacks might have declined drastically in the last year, it does not mean the security forces are winning the war.
“The decline is because the insurgents have mostly stopped targeting civilians. People see this as a sign that the insurgency is becoming less dangerous, but that is just not the truth,” Jacobs said.
“While about 70% to 80% of their attacks in the past were targeted at civilians, the decline does not mean the insurgents are on the back foot. Over the last two to three months, they have given security forces a seriously bloody nose in the Macomia district.”
According to Jacobs, the death of Omar was not the result of a targeted operation to eliminate him.
“On August 22, insurgents targeted a military position near Quiterajo village. In the aftermath, sources reported that an FDS — Mozambique’s defence and security forces — armoured vehicle was destroyed, killing all nine occupants.
“Three days later, Mozambique’s chief of the general staff of the Mozambican Armed Defence Forces (Forças Armadas de Defesa de Moçambique — FADM), Joaquim Rivas Mangrasse, announced that one of the core insurgent leaders, Bonomade Ibn Omar, was killed during the altercation,” Jacobs said.
Who was Ibn Omar?
“Omar was born in Palma district in Mozambique and grew up in the Mocímboa da Praia district. He reportedly completed school and studied Islam in several countries, with sources describing him as intelligent and deeply religious,” said Jacobs.
“Furthermore, Omar had several allies in the region as well as within the FDS, which ensured a steady stream of human intelligence. Most notably, Omar was the one who dictated the rules: how to attack, where to attack, and who to kill. All insurgent ideas of attack and counterattack in Cabo Delgado were the responsibility of Omar.”
According to Jacobs, Omar was a well-educated tactician who had built up invaluable relationships with the region’s citizens.
“He had been at the core of the insurgency, with Focus Group’s source network pointing to his involvement since the first insurgent attacks in October 2017.
“His competence may have benefited from exposure to the Islamic State (IS), as both open and privileged information sources reported his participation in IS meetings in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.”
According to Jacobs, Omar’s death left a prominent leadership void that the insurgency would need to fill as soon as possible, even if Omar was only the military commander rather than the overall head of the insurgency.
He believes the man who will take over from the late Omar to be a boots-on-the-ground leader of the insurgents known as Quadrado.
“He was a sort of platoon leader in their hierarchy — a brutal fighter who led a semi-independent squad of fighters. According to our sources he played a major role in insurgency activities in the Nampula province in 2022.”
Willem Els, from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), told TimesLIVE Premium that Quadrado is to be the man to take over from Omar, but believes this has already happened. “Our sources in the country say Quadrado has already been picked to take over from Omar and has had meetings with a lot of villagers in the area.”
They also have an outline of the insurgents’ leadership structures.
“According to our information the leader of the insurgency is a man named Sheika Hassan from Zanzibar. Then you have a man named Ulanga. Omar used to be just below Ulanga in the hierarchy, but we understand him to have been demoted,” Els said on Friday.
Jacobs agrees.
“While we have also heard that Omar had been demoted, it is important to note that he remained the insurgents’ head of operations. In a conflict like this, which is basically one big operation with many legs, that means he still had an important role to play when he was killed.”
The University of the Free State’s Prof Theo Neethling, head of the department of political studies and governance, told TimesLIVE Premium the Cabo Delgado conflict, while six years old, is here to stay.
“A major driving force behind recruitment and support under the local populace is the terrible socioeconomic conditions in Cabo Delgado. The province is the worst off in any socioeconomic indicator in the country. Health, economics, policing — you name it and they are on the bottom rung,” Neethling said.
“The area is incredibly rich in resources such as natural gas and has the potential to become the next Dubai, but until the people on the ground start feeling the benefits of the resources, this won’t happen.”
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