It’s the final countdown to “26 negative biophysical tipping points” which threaten the future of Earth. But if the world pivots towards positive tipping points, its disastrous trajectory now can be reversed, scientists say.
“This is a do or die moment for the world,” says Wits professor Laura Pereira, one of the authors of the first Global Tipping Points Report, being presented on Wednesday at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai, UAE.
“If we cross certain thresholds such as the 1.5°C climate target, we will be setting off potentially cascading impacts in our ecosystems, for example, dieback in the Amazon or glacial melt,” said Pereira, from the Wits Institute for Global Change.
The report warns that five natural tipping points are "already at risk of being crossed due to warming right now" and three more major tipping points are threatened in the 2030s if the world exceeds 1.5°C.
Tipping points are described as the point where “a small change sparks an often rapid and irreversible transformation”.
If countries rapidly implement changes to limit or prevent climate damage, for example in the energy, transport and food sectors, they can create positive tipping points.
The Global Tipping Points Report provides leaders, and other parties, with a blueprint to accelerate and co-ordinate global action to achieve these.
The future of billions of people will be determined by how fast the world phases out fossil fuels and moves towards zero-carbon solutions, the scientists note.
The report — produced by more than 200 researchers, co-ordinated by the University of Exeter — lists six recommendations for the world “to change course fast”:
- Phase out fossil fuels and land-use emissions now, stopping them well before 2050
- Strengthen adaptation (to adapt to climate shocks) and “loss and damage” governance, recognising inequality between and within nations
- Include tipping points in the Global Stocktake (the world’s climate “inventory”) and nationally determined contributions (each country’s efforts to tackle climate change)
- Co-ordinate policy efforts to trigger positive tipping points
- Convene an urgent global summit on tipping points.
- Deepen knowledge of tipping points, with the proposal for an IPCC special report on tipping points
Now is the moment to unleash a cascade of positive tipping points to ensure a safe, just and sustainable future for humanity.
— Professor Tim Lenton of Exeter University
Prof Tim Lenton, of Exeter University, said: “Negative tipping points can trigger devastating domino effects, including the loss of whole ecosystems and capacity to grow staple crops, with societal impacts including mass displacement, political instability and financial collapse.
“But tipping points also offer our best hope: we need to prioritise and trigger positive tipping points in our societies and economies. This is already happening in areas ranging from renewable energy and electric vehicles to social movements and plant-based diets.
“Now is the moment to unleash a cascade of positive tipping points to ensure a safe, just and sustainable future for humanity.”
Peireira pointed out, however, that the shift to electric vehicles is largely driven by Northern markets, but the rare minerals needed for their batteries, such as cobalt and lithium, come from the Global South.
“To make this shift [to electric vehicles] could then be perpetuating green sacrifice zones and we need to look systemically at all these interventions before we actually start calling them ‘positive’. You need to think of positive for who, for where and how?
“That’s a big question sitting at the core of this report. We need to address these environmental crises urgently, but this needs to be equitable, and we can’t just be focused on one solution.
“Where there is hope, is shifting our food system to be more sustainable and equitable and looking at finance, in particular the financial tipping points to see money moving away from perpetuating harms to areas where it is starting to address and come up with the solutions,” said Pereira while walking between meetings at COP28.
Dr Manjana Milkoreit, from the University of Oslo, noted that negative tipping points were likely to trigger “severe and disproportionate impacts within and between nations” and more resources will be needed for adaptation and loss and damages to cope with them.
“Averting this crisis — and doing so equitably — must be the core goal of COP28 and ongoing global co-operation,” she urged.
Dr Steve Smith, at the University of Exeter, said many areas of society had the potential to be “tipped” in a positive direction, including politics, social norms and mindsets.
“Human history is full of examples of abrupt social and technological change. Learning from these examples, we must switch our focus from incremental change to transformative action — tipping the odds in our favour.”
The report was produced in partnership with the Bezos Earth Fund. The fund’s scientific chief, Kelly Levin, said, “The path we choose now will determine the future of humanity ... given the required scale of action, we must target the most beneficial positive tipping points so that change takes off in a way that is unstoppable. The Global Tipping Points Report paves the way.”
Once published, the report will be publicly available here.
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