Load-shedding should be over by next year, and will be only half as bad this year compared to 2023.
That’s the view expressed by Energy Council of South Africa CEO James Mackay.
Speaking to TimesLIVE Premium on the sidelines of a renewable energy trade show in Cape Town on Wednesday, Mackay said his optimistic sentiment was based on much improved collaboration between the government and business, resulting in energy supply progress.
Mackay, who heads up energy co-ordination within the Business For South Africa (B4SA) public-private initiative, said last year’s “all-time low” level of load-shedding had created conditions ripe for policy change: “The upside has been rapid reform.” He said 2023 had been “our worst year [of load-shedding] by orders of magnitude. This year we will be at half of last year in terms of load-shedding, and next year we will be done with load-shedding.”
He said the narrative about energy had shifted from distrust and crisis management to innovation and planning. “We can’t wish away the distrust and the collapse of the public sector. If we can acknowledge that and say we can’t solve that so now let’s look forward ... we are moving again.”
Unlike the past years of mistrust, public and private stakeholders were now actively engaged in resolving the energy crisis. “I’ve never seen a more engaging and responsive government,” noted Mackay.
When it comes to electrolysis of green hydrogen, we have platinum and iridium. We’re sitting with a very good advantage in terms of supply value chain.
— Craig Parker, research director for Frost and Sullivan Africa
The B4SA team met President Cyril Ramaphosa every six weeks. “We’ve had about seven or eight teams at power stations working on problems with Eskom, and have played a fundamental role in unlocking some of the grid issues, and getting rid of certain legal challenges on issues.”
Mackay was one of several energy experts attending the opening day of the Solar Power Africa Trade Show at the Cape Town International Conference Centre. The three day event is the first of its kind dedicated to solar power and energy storage, and signals a huge uptick in renewable energy investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. It covers multiple renewable flashpoint themes, such as electric vehicles, climate financing, green hydrogen and long-duration energy storage. It also looks at energy innovation, including off-grid solar solutions.
Wednesday’s speakers said South Africa, with its abundance of sunshine and key minerals central to the renewable energy sector, was set for a solar energy revolution.
“There are a couple of things in our favour in South Africa,” said Craig Parker, research director for Frost and Sullivan Africa. “The first thing is minerals. When it comes to electrolysis of green hydrogen, we have platinum and iridium. We’re sitting with a very good advantage in terms of supply value chain.”
However, speakers warned that government policy was lagging behind the technological revolution, particularly in relation to the energy market and infrastructure development.
“If we are serious about playing in that [renewable] game we have to sort out our transmission and our broader infrastructure,” said Gaylor Montmasson-Clair, senior economist at Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) and South African Renewable Energy Masterplan (SAREM) facilitator.
He said the country could learn from neighbouring Namibia, which was rolling out one of the biggest renewable energy projects ever undertaken, with the help of South African expertise.
“Where we can learn from Namibia is that they have a ministerial council that meets every two weeks with developers to iron out any issues. They are taking it seriously. If we want to be player in the game we need to take it as seriously,” he said.
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