Experts believe that much of the drugs recovered in busts in South Africa are intended for the local market as there is demand, but warned the quantities seized are not a true reflection of the transactions of illicit drugs that occur in the country.
In the past few weeks, the police busted two women who had swallowed a large quantity of drugs wrapped in packets on arrival at OR Tambo International Airport (Ortia) in Johannesburg in separate incidents.
Both women had flown in from Brazil.
According to the police, a 21-year-old arrested on Sunday was the 11th alleged drug mule to be arrested at the airport in two months.
Police spokesperson Athlenda Mathe said every week in the past month, police, Sars, customs, immigration and the border management agency at Ortia had intercepted drug traffickers.
Independent crime analyst Thabang Bogopa cautioned that the busts are insignificant because the quantities that are being seized do not truly reflect the transactions of illicit drugs that happen between South African international ports of entry and other countries.
“The arrests have minimal effect based on the fact that we don't hear about the real perpetrators or the main perpetrators — the kingpins — being arrested. We do not hear about the people who were supposed to receive them being arrested, we do not hear about the people who facilitated these transactions being arrested,” he said.
The arrests have minimal effect based on the fact that we don't hear about the real perpetrators or the main perpetrators — the kingpins — being arrested. We do not hear about the people who were supposed to receive them being arrested, we do not hear about the people who facilitated these transactions being arrested.
— Thabang Bogopa, independent crime analyst
He said if one mule is arrested, there are nine more who are ready to replace them and are willing to be prosecuted, because they know that prosecution will take three to four years. “The arrest does not deter the illegal act,” he said.
He believes the confiscated drugs were for local consumption.
“The issue of local markets vs international market is that most people are arrested in transit, meaning they come to OR Tambo to catch another plane to Nairobi or Abu Dhabi or another country. But in South Africa, particularly in the CBDs and upmarket entertainment areas, there is high consumption of these illicit drugs and substances, so it is for local consumption as well,” he said.
Forensic and criminal expert Calvin Rafadi shared Bogopa's views on the drugs being destined for the local market.
“They are not in transit, they are here to be sold in our country — it shows there is high demand,” he said.
According to a report released by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in March 2023, global production of cocaine jumped dramatically after a slowdown caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Global Report on Cocaine 2023 detailed how cocaine cultivation soared 35% from 2020 to 2021, a record high and the sharpest year-to-year increase since 2016.
The report further showed that while the cocaine market remains quite concentrated in the Americas and parts of Europe, it warned that there is a strong potential for a large expansion in Africa and Asia.
It found that the volumes of cocaine flowing into and through east and southern Africa appear to be significant.
“The findings of this fieldwork, as well as those from other recent research initiatives, affirm that the coastal ports in South Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania and Kenya seem to be the primary nodes of domestic, regional and onward transnational distribution of cocaine,” the report concluded.
Bogopa said corruption is at the core of enabling the shipments of illegal drugs both from South Africa to other countries and importing them from other countries into South Africa.
“You realise that the arrest only happens if something goes wrong, someone who was supposed to accept them was not there, or someone on that day rejected whatever they were offered to keep quiet. The reality is there is someone who is enabling these transactions to happen, and unfortunately that person is enjoying the proceeds when there is success,” Bogopa.
Rafadi said Ephedrine, which is used to manufacture cocaine, Mandrax and tik, and which used to be sold over the counter, is now being shipped from other countries into South Africa.
Bogopa said it is important to have international collaboration between local, African and international law enforcement agencies to tackle drug flows between countries.
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