Experts agree the recent crime statistics which showed a decline in several contact crimes should be celebrated with caution as they are not a true reflection as most people choose to not report crime any more.
The second-quarter crime statistics for the 2024/25 financial year showed a decline in several contact crimes, including murder and rape, between July and September.
Police minister Senzo Mchunu revealed that murders declined by 5.8%, translating to a decrease of 400 from 6,945 during the same period in 2023.
Sexual offences decreased by 2.5% and robbery with aggravating circumstances by 8.8%.
A reduction of 5.8% in murder rates and 2.5% in sexual offences have been cited as evidence of progress in combating violent crime.
Despite the lower crime incidents which suggest police are winning the war against crime, experts believe the statistics are far from what people are experiencing, and there is an underreporting of crime.
According to Gareth Newham, from the Institute for Security Studies, crime statistics gathered by police agencies around the world do not paint a completely accurate picture.
So it is good news that we have two quarters in a row that have shown a reduction in murder. However, what is worrying is the sizeable (8.6%) increase in the murder of women and 75% increase in the murder of children in the most recent quarter.
— Gareth Newham, from the Institute for Security Studies
This is because many victims do not report their incidents to the police for various reasons.
He said on crimes like rape and other forms of sexual assault, the reporting rates are very low.
“The victims are often embarrassed and often know the perpetrator and therefore do not want to involve the police. Similarly, a large proportion of commercial crimes such as fraud and corruption go unreported,” he said.
However, Newham said the most accurate crime statistic is murder as most of these are reported to or recorded by the SAPS.
“So it is good news that we have two quarters in a row that have shown a reduction in murder. However, what is worrying is the sizeable (8.6%) increase in the murder of women and 75% increase in the murder of children in the most recent quarter. This on top of similar increases in the first quarter of the financial year,” Newham said.
Further, he said it is worth noting that on October 10, the auditor-general reported to the parliament's portfolio committee on police that they had found inaccuracies in the police crime data.
Newham said given that the police measure their performance on crime statistics, there is a structural incentive to reduce the numbers recorded at the station level.
“This was clearly identified as a problem in the 2014 report of the commission of inquiry into the breakdown of police-community relations in the four police stations that make up the broader Khayelitsha policing area. In addition to various ways in which police members can reduce crime statistics at a station level, for example, not recording it, persuading victims to not report, or not entering the reports on the electronic crime management system,” Newham said.
Moreover, Newham said crime reductions are also associated with the decline in the trust that the community has in their local police.
He said if public trust declines because of police inefficiency or corruption, then fewer victims report crime and it looks as if crime is reducing.
Newham said this is particularly the case for various contact crimes such as assault and property crimes.
“An interesting discrepancy to note is that between the 2024 Victims of Crime Survey (VoCS) undertaken by Stats SA and SAPS Crime statistics for 2023/24. For example, the VoCS recorded almost 460,000 cases of residential robbery while the SAPS crime statistics record almost 24,000. These are huge differences that have yet to be clearly explained,” he said.
Dr Mary Mangai, a senior lecturer at the University of Pretoria's School of Public Management and Administration, said while the statistical figures may indicate some improvement, questions about their accuracy and representation of the reality on the ground remain valid.
“These statistics, while promising, should be approached with caution, as they do not necessarily capture the full scope of crime in the country.
Mangai concurs with Newham that one significant issue is the persistence of underreporting.
“Many crimes, particularly sexual offences, are never reported to law enforcement due to various barriers. Victims may fear retaliation, distrust the police, or face societal stigma, especially in cases involving intimate partner violence or sexual assault. Additionally, access to reporting mechanisms remains uneven across the country, with rural and marginalised communities often lacking adequate resources. This means that official statistics may reflect only a fraction of the crimes occurring, resulting in an underestimation of the true prevalence of violence and other offences,” she said.
Mangai believes that another concern lies in the methodologies used to collect and present crime data.
“Crime statistics in South Africa are based on reported incidents and counting rules that can create discrepancies. For instance, a single case docket may involve multiple charges or victims, but the statistics may aggregate them differently depending on how the incidents are recorded. Conversely, multiple cases consolidated under one docket could lead to underreporting. Furthermore, regional disparities in reporting — where urban areas with better policing infrastructure report more accurately than rural areas — can skew the national picture,” Mangai said.
While forensic and crime expert Calvin Rafadi has commended the police for the reduction in certain areas of crime, he expressed ongoing concerns about the handling of gender-based violence (GBV) cases.
He urged police to make full use of GBV-friendly rooms in police stations to ensure victims feel safe and supported when reporting crimes.
Rafadi questioned the SAPS management’s recurring promise to enhance crime intelligence.
“Every time crime statistics are released, we hear the same assurances about restoring crime intelligence, but little progress is made,” he said.
He called on law enforcement to monitor the funerals of deceased criminals more closely, highlighting the troubling trend of associates firing guns into the air, which instils fear in affected communities.
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