The psychological effects of cocking an automatic pistol or bullets visible in the chamber of a revolver may be the reasons these weapons are favoured by home invaders, but according to a recent study, a small dog living inside your house can be the ultimate deterrent.
Dr Rudolph Zinn, a former professor at Unisa's School of Criminal Justice and now a director of the Foundation for a Safe South Africa and a research professor at the University of Limpopo, recently completed an update of a 2008 study after interviewing 30 people arrested for home invasions since the turn of the century. The update is still to be published.
“The original study took four years, consisted of 30 interviews and was published in 2008. This time I did 15 more interviews in my update, and it also took four years. I am finished with the update, but I have not published it yet. I want to do it this year so it is available free of charge, even if we put it on a website in the public domain,” Zinn told TimesLIVE Premium on Tuesday.
But how did he reach his conclusions?
“If you use research methodology, you can do a qualitative study — mostly used when you are looking at figures like Stats SA does when they interview 33,000 households. You must also remember that this is a crime that goes heavily unreported. According to Stats SA, 46% of home invasions are not reported.
“So I prefer to do qualitative studies. This is where you talk to the criminals themselves and get their input."
He said the international standard is to talk to 15 respondents.
“My list for home invasions consisted of 121 questions. Initially you get a lot of new information, but as the interviews go on you get less and less new information until you reach saturation point. That is where you can stop,” Zinn explained.
“I’ve always preferred to double the interviews expected to meet the standards. For the first study I interviewed 30 respondents who had already been sentenced for their crimes. This round I interviewed 15 more until I reached saturation.”
What was new in the second round?
“The main real difference was the adjustments made for modern technology. The more recent respondents make use of equipment like signal blockers. You can walk into a shop in Singapore and buy them over the counter.
“These blockers can interfere with both UHF and VHF signals and a five-block radius can be affected, depending on the size or strength of the blocker. This means you can’t use a cellphone to call for help and your alarm signal is probably also out. Very few people have landlines these days, so this is a very effective tactic,” Zinn said.
He laughs when he is asked about his findings regarding small dogs living inside the house.
“It may seem incredible, but it is true. The respondents said that if they approach a target home and see there a small dog sticking its head through the curtains, they immediately turn back. These small dogs are a major deterrence for the home invaders.”
But why are revolvers and pistols the favoured weapons?
“The act of cocking the pistol makes a sound that is familiar to most people, so it is effective intimidation even in darkness. The revolver is a second favourite, but this time it is a visual angle. The victims can see the bullets in the chamber and can immediately tell that it is a real firearm,” Zinn told TimesLIVE Premium.
While psychological intimidation may be enough for some, others take a more cold-hearted route.
“Some of the respondents told me that no matter whether the victims are complying, they would immediately shoot the man in the house. The woman then knows they mean business and does what they tell her to do,” Zinn said
“Eight out of 10 residential robberies are committed with the help of information from contract workers, maids, gardeners and former employees.”
These attacks are very seldom spontaneous crimes, and the robbers can be early birds or night owls.
Robbers will monitor the home for as long as two weeks if needed. Like a lot of crime in South Africa, there is an intelligence-gathering component involved.
— Dr Rudolph Zinn
“Robbers will monitor the home for as long as two weeks if needed. Like a lot of crime in South Africa there is an intelligence-gathering component involved.”
There are two peak times for home invasions, he said.
“Most attacks occur between 7pm and midnight, as people are relaxed, sleeping, cooking or watching TV and the security systems and beams are not activated. Robberies can continue until 4am.
“The other peak time is between 5am and 7am when alarm systems are deactivated for the new day,” Zinn said.
People don’t know how their own alarm systems work. It should remain activated outside the residence and not only enter the picture once the robber touches a window. By that time, the interviewees said they would just press on. They know that in most cities and towns they have about 10 minutes before armed reaction arrives,” Zinn said.
He claims to have formed a complete picture of the teams behind this criminal industry.
“97% of robbers are armed. On average, an armed robbery gang has four members. The average age of a house robber is 19 to 26. An average of 30% of all house robbers have either committed murder or won’t hesitate to commit murder.”
He says the robbers come from impoverished backgrounds.
“Of all arrested robbers, 90% had no matric qualification or were unemployed. The 10% who had been employed gave up their jobs when confirming how much they could ‘earn’ from a robbery,” Zinn said.
It seems to be a South African pastime, according to Zinn.
“In my first study, I found that only 17% of house robbers are foreigners. This number was much smaller in the second study with about 5% of the respondents being foreigners. A lot of our South African respondents said they hired weapons and equipment from Zimbabweans and Mozambicans.”
By the time a robber is arrested for the first time, he is already an experienced hand.
“The average robber commits 103 robberies over seven years before getting caught.”
According to Zinn, most attackers’ homes or ‘bases’ are a 10-30-minute drive from the target address.
“It makes sense to know the area you are targeting because you know the escape routes and the reaction times of local police, neighbourhood watches and security companies.”
National police spokesperson Brig Athlenda Mathe, said they could not immediately provide TimesLIVE Premium with collated statistics for home invasions.
“That would be difficult — we had convictions of housebreaking accused and arrests. At a station level per docket they can decipher,” Mathe said on Tuesday.
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