At times in the not so distant past, a Covid-19 vaccine had the mystical aura of a unicorn — beautiful but imaginary. Completely unattainable. Now, SA has committed to purchase vaccines for 10% of the population through the Covax global Covid-19 distribution scheme.
It brings with it a distant glimmer of light at the end of a very long, dark tunnel.
Could this landmark development possibly signal the beginning of the end of the havoc that the virus has inflicted on the world?
Only time will tell, but, as the death toll continues to inch upwards and a return to normal life remains just out of reach, the latest deal is a mental game changer for many South Africans.
But the announcement has sparked what could become a contentious debate. Which 10% of the population gets the vaccine first? And who makes that decision?
Few will argue that health-care workers should be at the front of the queue. But which health-care workers? Then people with comorbidities? The elderly? Those living in hotspot areas?
It’s a difficult call to make, and one that will probably never find full consensus.
There are other questions too. How will the vaccine rollout be managed? What role will the private sector play, and will it be a case of the rich getting in first?
The vaccine announcement has sparked what could become a contentious debate.
What sort of time frames are we looking at? Will it be in time to halt a possible second wave? And how soon will we be able to access more vaccines through the Covax programme, so all South Africans can be immunised?
The government has publicly expressed support for Covax but has yet to say what percentage of the population it will seek to cover via the facility co-led by the World Health Organisation.
The programme strives to supply low- and middle-income countries with proven Covid-19 vaccines to ensure equitable access around the world.
SA has recorded the most coronavirus infections on the African continent, with more than 760,000 confirmed cases and more than 20,000 deaths to date.
Finance minister Tito Mboweni said during a webinar on Tuesday that SA has paid R500m to participate in the Covax programme.
He also said he would find a further R4.5bn from the budget to make sure SA has an adequate supply and is at “the front of the queue” when vaccines become available.
But he did not give details on time frames.
So far, Covax has secured deals for about 700 million doses. While this seems a lot, it is not nearly enough.
SA may also receive assistance from China. The country’s new ambassador to SA, Chen Xiaodong, said on Tuesday that though Beijing had already committed to providing vaccines to Africa through Covax, it would also “actively consider providing vaccines to countries in need”. China has also previously said it would assist Brics countries with vaccines.
Last week there was a 9% average increase in new cases in Africa. Africa CDC director Dr John Nkengasong said research showed that 81% of people across 11 African countries would accept a vaccine — significantly above the 40-60% of people in the “developed world”.
Drugmakers and research centres around the world continue to work furiously on Covid-19 vaccines, with large global trials of several of the candidates involving tens of thousands of participants well under way.
US drugmaker Pfizer Inc and German partner BioNTech SE released final late-stage trial data on November 18, that showed their shot was 95% effective at stopping Covid-19, the highest efficacy rate so far.
On November 16, another US pharmaceutical company, Moderna, released interim data showing that its vaccine worked in a large, late-stage clinical trial with a 94.5% efficacy rate.
Meanwhile, the Oxford vaccine, developed with AstraZeneca, can prevent on average 70.4% of people from getting Covid-19, according to new data from late-stage trials in Britain and Brazil.
The future is looking slightly less scary than it did a few months ago.
At least four Chinese vaccines are far along, and Russia has also given the Sputnik V vaccine to 10,000 members of the general population considered high risk.
So the future is looking slightly less scary than it did a few months ago.
But Wits University professor of vaccinology Shabir Madhi has warned that it could be some time before SA gets its hands on any vaccines.
“The chances of SA gaining access at a significant volume in the next few months is extremely unlikely,” he said, “and the most highly optimistic projection is that we’d be fortunate to get any by the end of the second quarter next year.”
Then there is that tricky little problem of storage, with most of these vaccines having to be stored at -70°C, and there aren’t facilities in the private or public sector of that nature, except for a “very few specialised facilities in the country”.
So the latest advances in vaccine development, though groundbreaking, are certainly no reason to throw caution to the wind. For now, SA needs to remain firmly committed to the three golden rules of Covid avoidance: wearing masks, social distancing and regular hand washing. That is all that stands between us and a second surge.
