ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule and former president Jacob Zuma will, without the slightest hesitation, raze the ANC and SA to ruins in Stalingrad fashion to evade prosecution for alleged corruption.
The pair exhibit narcissistic tendencies, so it was always poor strategy by President Cyril Ramaphosa to compromise with and try to placate them by pursuing a “unified” policy to keep their faction in the ANC tent.
The two are now likely to follow self-serving strategies to try to dig themselves out of their current pits.
Like narcissists in intimate relationships, Magashule and Zuma only want to secure their own interests, no matter who they destroy in the process. They want things their way, cannot compromise or accept others’ points of view.
Narcissists, if they don’t get their way, will, in their quest for control, destroy anyone around them, including their families. They will bend the truth to fit their interests. They usually have enablers, whom they charm to help them in their bouts of destruction, and when their enablers disagree with them, they are cast aside.
Similarly, Magashule and Zuma will destroy the ANC, which they profess to want to be standard-bearers of. They will deliberately try to undermine democratic institutions, such as the judiciary, prosecuting authorities and state agencies, to secure their own interests.
They are likely to attack the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA), especially its leaders, national director of public prosecutions (NDPP) Shamila Batohi and Hermione Cronje, the head of the NPA’s investigative directorate.
Magashule and Zuma will destroy the ANC, which they profess to want to be the standard-bearers of.
Magashule and Zuma are likely to try to use ANC figures sympathetic to them to push out Batohi and Cronje or cause divisions within the NPA to undermine its capacity.
The two still have large pockets of allies in the prosecuting and police services, deployed by Zuma when he was president to protect his and his faction’s interests.
They will probably also try to show that Batohi and Cronje are part of a political conspiracy, allegedly led by Ramaphosa, to falsely prosecute them.
Crucially, Magashule and Zuma are likely to mobilise members and branches against the president. They will use the Covid-19 financial crisis, which has led to factory closures, job losses and home foreclosures, to blame Ramaphosa for the government’s slow response, incoherent economic recovery plan and widespread corruption of coronavirus recovery funds.
However, they will be silent on their responsibility for the decade of looting, mismanagement and cronyism that has led to our failed state, with its broken institutions, depleted finances and social disorder.
Instead of taking responsibility for ruining SA they will blame the usual scapegoats: “white monopoly capital”, “imperialism” and apartheid. They will call Ramaphosa a “puppet” of these “forces”, which are allegedly opposed to the betterment of black lives. They will call for “radical economic transformation”, a mixture of leftist populism, statism and authoritarianism.
They will equate their calls for “radical economic transformation” to the supposed upliftment of black people, rather than a cover for their self-enrichment and seizure of the ANC and state, and to protect themselves from prosecution.
It is likely Magashule and Zuma will go all out to get rid of Ramaphosa as ANC president as soon as possible. The former, after his initial court appearances, warned that there will be a reckoning at the ANC’s national general council next year. The putsch against former president Thabo Mbeki by the Zuma faction started at such a council and the Magashule/Zuma faction wants to use the same strategy to oust Ramaphosa.
It is now very likely that Magashule and Zuma will go all out to get rid of Ramaphosa as ANC president as soon as possible.
Even if the president extends the hand of peace by offering them concessions to keep the ANC unified they will demand more. That’s the narcissists’ way. They will want concessions Ramaphosa cannot give them, such as immunity from prosecution in return for stopping their anti-Ramaphosa campaigns.
Their strategy will focus on badmouthing the president to tarnish his reputation among rank-and-file ANC members.
The Magashule/Zuma group appears to believe it is not in its interests to break from the ANC now. It seems to want to take back control of the party and state, to use the resources of both to shore up their own interests, to take control of the prosecuting authorities and police, and so sniff out any further investigations into themselves, their associates and political allies.
Ramaphosa’s only option is to ditch trying to secure ANC “unity” and push for Magashule and other ANC leaders being investigated for crime, corruption and wrongdoing to stand down from party leadership positions. Given the public and the ANC rank-and-file outrage against corruption, service delivery failures and lack of accountability, it is likely that when forced to choose between Ramaphosa and Magashule/Zuma, they will choose the president.
This alone should push Ramaphosa to light a fire under them, to compel the Magashule/Zuma faction to break away from the ANC and form its own “radical economic transformation” party to contest future elections.
* William Gumede is associate professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand; and author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times (Tafelberg).
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.