ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule, by refusing to step aside after his formidable corruption charges, is clearly going for broke to topple President Cyril Ramaphosa as leader of the ANC and take control of the governing party.
It has now become a political battle between the two, where only one person could be the winner, while the other will certainly, at worst, be pushed out, or at best, be a lame duck.
Magashule and 15 others are facing fraud, corruption and money-laundering charges in relation to a failed 2014 asbestos project during his tenure as Free State premier. His case has been set down in the high court for August 11.
During a media briefing after his court appearance in Bloemfontein on Friday, Magashule made it clear that “when the dust settles”, “I will still be standing”. In ANC culture, this is a challenge, imaginably for the top leadership of the ANC, the presidency itself.
If Magashule wins this battle, from which he should step aside, he will become ANC president, or at least catapult someone of his choice to the position, such as cooperative governance and traditional affairs (Cogta) minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who lost to Ramaphosa at the ANC’s 2017 national elective conference.
Magashule was part of Nkosazana-Zuma’s failed bid to be ANC president.
The party’s national executive committee (NEC) last week adopted a resolution calling for members facing criminal charges to voluntarily step aside from the ANC and government leadership positions. Magashule, during the media briefing after his court appearance, said he would not step aside because, in spite of the NEC being the highest decision-making structure between national elective conferences every fives years, he did not believe the organ had the power to make such a ground-breaking decision.
He defiantly stated that the decision to step aside because of his corruption charges should be made by ANC branches, not the NEC. He said: “And our structures, the basic units, we actually discuss those matters and that’s why we have taken them there.” Of course, this is his attempt to buy time to stay in his powerful secretary-general position, but more so to have the time to engineer Ramaphosa’s removal.
If the majority of the ANC branches reject the resolution to have leaders facing corruption charges step aside, Magashule and his camp will interpret this a sure sign they have the majority vote in the ANC and will, no doubt, use that to push Ramaphosa out as ANC president.
For months Magashule has been touring the branches, mobilising supporters and building a branch infrastructure that will be loyal to him. His camp has recruited new members to the party and got former members to sign up again.
Furthermore, Magashule is also corralling behind him all those who are opposed to Ramaphosa, have lost out on tenders or jobs, or face corruption charges — his version of a coalition of the “wounded”.
His position as ANC secretary-general gives Magashule easy access to ANC party machinery, its branches and resources to shore up support among the rank and file. If he is forced to step aside from the position, it would be manifestly harder for him to mobilise party grass-roots supporters behind his cause.
Unseating Ramaphosa as ANC president could take place at a national elective conference scheduled for next year. In his bid to remove the president, Magashule, with former president Jacob Zuma, could, with their supporters, push for a special ANC conference earlier — this year, perhaps — rather than wait for 2022.
It would be a mistake if Ramaphosa did not mobilise branches to counter Magashule. Former president Thabo Mbeki made that error when he allowed Zuma, when he was fired for corruption ahead of the ANC’s 2007 Polokwane conference, to do just that.
They could presumably argue that during the Covid-19 financial crisis, which has led to mass business closures, job losses and investment cancellations, Ramaphosa was an ineffective leader.
Alternatively, they may use the results of the upcoming local elections — if the ANC does terribly, which is increasingly likely given public anger about corruption, service delivery failures and economic hardships — to say there has to be an emergency national conference to decide on new policies and leadership to deal with the failures.
Furthermore, like Zuma before him, Magashule is also likely to find ways to delay his court proceedings until the next conference, where he could engineer the overthrow of Ramaphosa and take control of the party. If a Magashule/Zuma faction wrests control of the ANC, the two could, in their calculations, quash the corruption cases against them.
It would be a mistake if Ramaphosa did not also mobilise branches to counter Magashule. Former president Thabo Mbeki made that error when he allowed Zuma, when he was fired for corruption ahead of the ANC’s 2007 Polokwane conference, to do just that.
Given Magashule and Zuma are now actively working to topple him, Ramaphosa would do well to go on the offensive and push to have the NEC resolution regarding those under investigations stepping aside implemented immediately, rather than going to the branches. Whether he completes his term as ANC president or secures a second term will depend on him building his own base among the party’s branches and quickly enforcing the NEC resolution to have Magashule leave his post as secretary-general.
William Gumede is associate professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and author of “Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times” (Tafelberg).
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