EDITORIAL | Saviour turned dictator: Abiy Ahmed has turned into a stereotype

Across the globe, Ethiopia’s prime minister Abiy Ahmed was the embodiment of the best leadership Africa could unleash. In his mid-40s he signed a peace pact ending years of war and strife with Eritrea, released political prisoners and amended a repressive security law. Born of a Muslim father and a Christian mother, the Horn of Africa region found in him not only a leader who encouraged ethnic coexistence, but a strong pillar to support much-needed peace and stability. Winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 was the icing on top of the recognition he received internationally.

A year later, Ahmed was a typical dictator, shutting down the internet, arresting political foes and journalists, turning a blind eye to women being raped with impunity by an army propping up a man who has become an embarrassment to those who thought him a worthy peace prize laureate. 

What went wrong? 

In a televised address in November 2020, Ahmed ordered a military offensive against the northern Tigray region with a view to weaken its stranglehold on local politics. The war seemed motivated by ethnic consideration and the US, a close ally that worked with Addis Ababa to fight Islamic insurgents in neighbouring Somalia, called the violence in Ethiopia “ethnic cleansing”.

A year later, two million people have been forced from their homes, there is an accelerated onset of famine in parts of the country and the rebels seem to be advancing on the capital, Addis Ababa. 

The conflict seems to be an offshoot of Ahmed’s hunger for power. Once elected in 2018, he demolished the coalition that catapulted him to power, established a new party with all former members except those in the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), a minority that had, until his election, dominated local politics. 

To the many people who have endured years of suffering, unable to access food aid, let alone engage in normal economic activity, they have been failed.

The TPLF, established in the mid-1970s as a militia of Tigrayans fighting marginalisation of Tigray by the central government, is considered to have power and influence disproportionate to those who support it. Ethiopia is composed of Oromo and Amhara tribes that make up 60% of the population, with Tigrayans the third largest at about seven percent. 

But the powerful TPLF has always dominated local politics, with Meles Zenawi its most famous export. He was Ethiopia’s prime minister from 1991 to 2012, when he died.

What seemed to escalate hostilities was Ahmed’s postponement — citing the pandemic — of parliamentary elections in the region. Addis Ababa retaliated by freezing funding to the area. The TPLF retreated to the mountainous north. Tensions escalated. Government restricted the internet. Eritrean forces joined Ahmed’s federal forces. Ahmed and his supporters seemed to have an upper hand, forcing TPLF away from Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, into the mountainous areas. 

In June, Ethiopia’s military suffered repeated defeats, forcing it to withdraw from Tigray, and thousands of its soldiers were captured. That same month, fighters from Tigray, Ethiopia’s northern region which shares borders with Eritrea and Sudan, drove government troops from Tigray. They are now advancing towards the capital, Addis Ababa. In late October, they captured two towns on the highway linking the north to Addis Ababa.

In desperation, Ahmed has now asked ordinary citizens to fight off the TPLF’s fighters, who he blamed for “pushing the country to its demise”. 

Matters have come to a head. The tables have turned. The rebels seem set to take over the country — by force. World leaders are red-faced. The US and the AU said this week that there was a “small window” of opportunity to bring about peace in Ethiopia. To the many people who have endured years of suffering, unable to access food aid, let alone engage in normal economic activity, they have been failed. Addis Ababa is the headquarters of the AU. If the AU is unable to protect and bring about promised peace and unity to a country where it is headquartered, who else could it assist? 

In Ethiopia, Ahmed seemed hungry for more power, irked by a minority that seemed in control. He could have negotiated for a greater role for the country’s majority. Now, his warmongering has backfired and his friends around the world can’t help. What started as a promising African story has, sadly, served to confirm the so-called African stereotype.