Russia’s Brics allies — SA, Brazil, India and China — must collectively intervene to end Russian President Vladimir Putin’s one-sided war with Ukraine because the protracted conflict is undermining their individual interests.
Brics countries have the most influence over Putin and he is likely to listen to them, rather than to leaders of Western countries. So far, China has offered to mediate in the conflict. In a phone call with Putin last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a negotiated solution.
Russia’s globally condemned invasion of Ukraine, which has now become a drawn-out conflict rather than the quick victory Putin might have expected, has not only stumped the Brics trade alliance of large emerging markets over how to respond. It has also caused deep divisions within these countries.
They appear to have been blindsided by the invasion. Some pegged support for Russia or adopted a neutral stance based on a quick takeover with little bloodshed or destruction. They assumed Ukraine would easily capitulate and the West would grudgingly accept Russia’s occupation.
However, the opposite has happened Ukraine is fighting tooth and nail, with the prospect of a guerrilla war looming, like the one the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) faced in Afghanistan in the late 1980s. The USSR was humiliated then, a factor which contributed to the breakdown of the USSR.
This latest crisis has seen Western powers unleash an economic war on Russia which is crippling the country and making the invasion financially unsustainable. Brics economies may also face collateral damage in the fallout. The conflict could slash more than $1.5-trillion (about R23-trillion) off the world economy by disrupting supply chains, pushing up inflation and driving many economies into recession.
The West’s fear that Russia may unleash its nuclear capabilities, the country’s 2014 annexation of the Crimea without any opposition and the shambolic exit of the US from Afghanistan last year emboldened Putin to strike out against Ukraine.
While the West and many developing countries have rightly condemned Russia for invading Ukraine, Brics countries have refrained from doing so, with SA issuing the emptiest on-the-fence statement.
Of course, Western powers’ manipulation of the UN for their own self interests — not securing global consensus to invade Iraq and Libya, and the US’s refusal to have its armed forces held accountable in the International Court of Justice — helped break down the global rule of law and strengthened the Russian president’s revolve to embark on this illegal invasion of a sovereign country.
In the lead-up to it, Putin communicated with individual Brics leaders, not to tell them specifically about an impending invasion, but to secure assurance of their political support or, at worst, neutrality if Russia fell out with a third-party country or Western power.
While the West and many developing countries have rightly condemned Russia for invading Ukraine, Brics countries have refrained from doing so. SA issued the emptiest on-the-fence statement, neither endorsing nor criticising the Russian bear, or, like India, abstaining from UN motions to censure the country.
China, India and Brazil have also refrained from voting against Russia at the UN. Brics countries’ support for Russia has caused huge political fallouts, either within governing parties or across broader society.
In India, the opposition Congress Party, civil organisations and the media have been critical of the country’s “non-aligned” stance towards the invasion. “The government of India should stop its verbal balancing act and sternly demand that Russia stop immediately the bombing of key cities in Ukraine,” Palaniappan Chidambaram, a leading member of the party, tweeted recently.
On February 16, a week before the invasion and while Russian troops were amassing at the borders of Ukraine, Putin met Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and declared Brazil Russia’s most important partner in Latin America. Bolsonaro said his country was in “solidarity” with Russia.
Brazil exports about $31bn (about R476bn) in goods to the US and about $1.6bn (about R24.6bn) to Russia, so Bolsonaro’s pledge was more political alliance-based than in the interests of business.
He had to slam his vice-president, Hamilton Mourão, who said Brazil respected Ukraine’s sovereignty and compared Russia’s invasion to Adolf Hitler’s aggression in late-1930s Eastern Europe. The US and Nato countries have criticised Brazil for its stance. If Western countries launch sanctions against the country for supporting Russia, its economy, which is tightly linked to the US, will be crippled.
Putin visited India in December 2021, a visit that coincided with the delivery to India of a Russian-made S-400 missile defence system, with a range of 400km and the ability to shoot down 80 targets simultaneously.
The Russia-India relationship dates back to the Cold War and USSR. Putin visited India in December 2021, a visit that coincided with the delivery to India of a Russian-made S-400 missile defence system with a range of 400km and the ability to shoot down 80 targets simultaneously. It’s one of the most sophisticated surface-to-air defence systems in the world. About 60% of India’s weapons are Russian-made. The country has adopted a non-aligned stance towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict. India may depend on Russia’s arms, but its economy is tightly interwoven with that of the West. Isolation by Western countries because of support for Russia will be painful to the Indian economy.
Xi and Putin met on February 4, issuing a joint statement of support for each other. Reliable sources say Putin promised to postpone any armed action until after the Winter Olympics in Beijing. The irony, if that was true, is that this gave Ukraine breathing space to prepare and the later date fell in the mud season, when the country’s roads are almost impossible to navigate. This has hindered the Russian army’s movement.
Depending on how Western powers responded to the invasion, China may, on the face of it, have benefited had it used the situation as a cover to embark on a copycat invasion of Taiwan. It has been threatening to do so for years, claiming the country is part of China. Now, global outrage about Russia’s behaviour may, in the near future, temper China’s ambitions in this regard.
It is in the interests of all Brics nations to intervene to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. It is causing that country devastation, death and economic destruction, but is also damaging the world economy and those of Brics countries.
William Gumede taught a media management seminar for media owners in Russia, the USSR and the Baltic countries at the London School of Economics and Political Sciences (LSE). He is the author of ‘South Africa in BRICS’ (Tafelberg).
LISTEN | Ukraine-Russia: 'SA’s fence-sitting reflects a lack of principles'
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