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Political analyst Ebrahim Fakir painted a dire picture on Eusebius on TimesLIVE of the true total cost of the leadership crisis within the ANC. With fellow political analyst and podcast host Eusebius McKaiser, Fakir explored the consequences of unethical leadership within the ANC going unpunished. Many examples, from the perjury conviction of former social development minister Bathabile Dlamini to murder accused Mandla Msibi being elected ANC Mpumalanga treasurer-general, suggest that unethical and even criminal conduct is not an obstacle to occupying positions of leadership within the governing party. The nexus question of this edition of Eusebius on TimesLIVE is what the democratic consequences of this is, given that the ANC is a massive social movement within our society and (for now, still) the largest political party by some distance.
Citing robust empirical data, Fakir argues that there has been a sharp decline in the levels of public trust in various democratic institutions, including a decline in the public’s trust of political parties. This, in turn, is matched by increased levels of abstention from, and non-participation in, elections. This, he argues, does not bode well for the continued legitimacy of the ANC. McKaiser and Fakir both explored, furthermore, how the impunity of criminal and unethical leaders results in poor governance, thereby opening up space for populist politics, including dangerous anti-foreigner sentiments from various opposition leaders and parties, all capitalising on the discontent of the proverbial masses.
These two interlocutors also debated whether the ANC’s confidence is justified that the party, as a social movement, has deep roots within communities, roots that mitigate against the critical analysis of commentators. Using empirical data, however, Fakir explained why such a view is evidence-insensitive, and argued that the ANC, in the best case scenario, might well score no more than just over half of the votes that will be cast in 2024. Unless, that is, the party takes seriously the true message contained within its cumulative decline of the share of available votes in the last few elections.
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