Your lights are going to go off today.
They are going to go off next week.
They are going to go off next month.
They are going to go off next year.
Intermittent power blackouts (load-shedding, in Eskom corporate parlance) are going to be around for a very long time. President Cyril Ramaphosa said, more than 24 months ago, that blackouts would be a thing of the past; that in 24 months they would have put in place measures to secure enough electricity for the country. He lied.
Power cuts are super annoying because they are a governance failure the effect of which is felt immediately — except, of course, by the lucky few who have completely gone off the grid.
Ordinarily, the unemployed and poor are the first victims of government ineptitude because they can’t afford private services the well-heeled can fork out forwhen government fails them — private schooling, healthcare, security and so on.
But in a country where literally everything is falling apart as a consequence of a failing state, the impact is felt by all. Ramaphosa came to power on the reformer ticket and this is reflected in his speeches and actions. Someone close to him once told me how shocked the president was to discover the depth of state incapacity shortly after taking office. I wondered why, because the man had been in government for four years before he jettisoned Zuma in 2018.
Anyway, he’s a pragmatist, an approach moulded from his lengthy stint as a businessman. Ramaphosa understands the lofty goals of the National Development Plan will remain pie in the sky if not accompanied by structural reforms of the economy. Structural reforms are the legislative, administrative, regulatory and systematic changes government must make to clear blockages and bottlenecks holding the economy back.
For most of these challenges and delays, the bloated and ineffective bureaucracy the ANC has built is squarely to blame.
Because much of this red tape resides in government departments, state agencies, provinces and municipalities, the presidency has created an internal unit — Vulindlela — specifically tasked with speeding up the implementation of structural reforms. It can kick the backside of lethargic state players into action.
Created in October 2020, the unit focused on 26 economic reforms whose implementation was deemed urgent. These included raising the licensing threshold for embedded power generation to attract private sector investment in the generation of electricity; upping the energy availability factor (the number of power plants in good working order) to 70%; opening Bid Window 5 of the renewable energy programme for an additional 2,600MW of wind and solar power; completing the spectrum action; improving the water-use licence approvals; opening the rail network to private players; and improving efficiency at ports.
In a report released on Monday, Operation Vulindlela (an isiZulu word meaning “clear the way”) boasted mixed success. The embedded generation threshold was increased to 100MW (on this score, the unit gave energy minister Gwede Mantashe a bleeding nose, intervening to halt his plans to increase the threshold from 1MW to a paltry 10MW). Vulindlela also took credit for completion of the process, enabling municipalities to buy electricity directly from independent power producers; corporatisation of the National Ports Authority as an independent subsidiary of Transnet rather than a division within; finalisation of the National Rail Policy; publication of the revised Critical Skills List; and implementation of the e-visa system in 14 countries.
The two reforms against whom it reported “critical challenge in implementation” were in the improvement of the energy availability factor (surprise, surprise: the power is out as I write this); and implementation of emergency procurement of 2,000MW of electricity. Not surprising as well given that government bizarrely favours parking huge polluting ships on the coast to supply us with emergency power. The environmentalists are having none of it.
Some reforms are marked “on track or under way”, while there are “some challenges and delays in implementation” in relation to others.
For most of these challenges and delays, the bloated and ineffective bureaucracy the ANC has built is squarely to blame.
At the mining indaba underway in Cape Town, the Minerals Council of SA says the mining industry has committed to 4GW renewable energy projects worth R65bn in new investment, thanks to the increase in the embedded generation threshold to 100MW. But it takes 18 months to get environmental and other approvals required to get the projects off the ground.
Approval of new mining ventures also takes up to 24 months, thanks to tardiness by the department of minerals and energy. Rail and ports inefficiencies have cost mining companies R35bn in lost income, including taxes they would have contributed to the fiscus.
It’s not the economy, stupid! Bill Clinton’s electoral strategist James Carville was wrong. It’s the stupid bureaucrats and empty suits at national and provincial departments, state agencies and municipalities who are holding it back.
Until something is done to reshape the state into a sharp implementation agency, your lights will be going on and off for the next five years.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.