Ivan Fellegi, chief statistician emeritus of Canada, proffers: “Whenever I said that we need to do something, I never preached about it because that is useless. Exhortation doesn’t get you anywhere ... one has to dream up techniques or tools or prods that make people behave the way you hope they would behave.” Training through EMA represents the tools and prods that should direct us differently towards a better future.
What does the Economic Modelling Academy (EMA) offer? We get to the nuts and bolts of what to expect from the academy, how to access it and how EMA can enhance your contribution to changing the world we live in through the power of policy design, implementation, monitoring and review. On June 9 the EMA was launched by former president Kgalema Motlanthe and a number of eminent personalities gave messages of support.
Open yourself to a world of economic tools of foresight by visiting the website www.Academyema.com. These tools will empower you as a civil society activist, private-sector investor, policymaker, bureaucrat or social entrepreneur. In the ever-changing world, EMA distinguishes itself by first capturing the complex laws of motion that govern economics. In this regard EMA is fully grounded in economic theory. It translates these laws of motion through a rich timeseries of statistical evidence and thus EMA is grounded in praxis of the continuous intersection of theory and practice emerging from empirical evidence. Through the web EMA has put this wealth of thought of integrated models on an interactive internet platform and has created ease of access to decompose the spatial and temporal complexity inherent in the laws of motions of economics.
EMA reveals itself to you by asking you to knock at its door through registering and voila, a journey that promises a world of experience and empowerment unfolds before your very eyes. From September EMA will run three courses over six months. What are the first three inaugural modules?
EMA’s promise as a learning organisation is established to help develop high-level skills in economic modelling, one of today’s most in-demand skills. Look back at the past two years and you will witness how Covid-19 unleashed the demand for capturing its reality as a pandemic though modelling.
What are the modules? Multi-Sector Macroeconomic Modelling, Modelling Provincial-District-Municipal Economies and Modelling Social Security and Public Works.
The unschooled and uninitiated like to tweet only one part of the statement by British statistician George Box (1919 to 2013): “Essentially all models are wrong.” A sad and vulgar interpretation of the statistical sciences which boasts intellectual nobility of the likes of English mathematician and biostatistician Karl Pearson (1857–1936), who elevated the role of statistics as the grammar of science. He highlighted the importance of correlation and curves and developed the chi-square distribution. Add to these British mathematical statistician Ronald A Fisher (1890–1962), whose remarkable contribution was in statistical modelling given observations. He can be seen as the father of machine learning and artificial intelligence. Fisher produced several eminent proteges and Box was among them. Box developed expertise in data transformations, named after him as the Box-Cox transformation. This approach converts non-normal dependent variables into a normal shape. His other part of the “all models are wrong” statement is, “but some are useful”. This compliment of the statement to “all models are wrong” raises the essential principle that ensures model results can be applied to everyday life. The training at EMA is in the league of model results that do this. They reflect the essence of praxis, the defining apex of theory and practice — the essence of beneficial living and meaning of life.
What are the modules? Multi-Sector Macroeconomic Modelling, Modelling Provincial-District-Municipal Economies and Modelling Social Security and Public Works. All these are policy discussions in SA and as a person or institution in policy design, these design tools reveal to your intellect and practice what scenarios are possible and what possible paths have to be followed with what probable results. Before you take an ignorant plunge into this — believe me, I know syndrome — take a short left to inform yourself. Before you plunge into the district development model, take a short left to understand how the laws of motion of economics become the prime definer of economic and cultural geography, and therefore impose variable geographies which should be factored into the mental models of fixations of static contiguous neighbourhoods. In this regard the module on Modelling Provincial-District-Municipal Economies is a sine qua non for a competent operator in that space. Without such knowledge, do not expect the province, district or municipality, and, to a large extent, the national sphere, to act differently. The models work consistently across time space and sector, and gravitate towards the effects of institutional and human agency as prime movers who create and enlighten value in markets following the fundamental laws of economic motion.
To come are equally public value- and knowledge-enhancing modules covering Poverty-Inequality Modelling, Skills Demand and Supply Modelling and Green Economy Modelling. These levels of competence will enable you to contribute to the future of your people, country and the interconnected world.
What is critical for SA is that these models were made possible because of the wealth of data Stats SA has been churning out. The end of lament on lack of use of data is nigh with EMA stepping to the platform.
Economic models are inherently complex. EMA provides focused, applied, deep training to enable you to understand and use these advanced analytical tools.
To thrive in the global economy leaders and organisations increasingly rely on those trained in economic modelling to better inform their decision-making. Our responsive and specialised training can develop economic modelling skills for all aspects of decision-making and planning, from analysis and policy design to impact analysis, forecasting and monitoring and evaluation.
Economic models are inherently complex. EMA provides focused, applied, deep training to enable you to understand and use these advanced analytical tools. Our capacity training gives you the ability to more productively and skilfully analyse the present, anticipate the future and make and implement policy choices with confidence. With a suite of international models at your disposal, our capacity-building tools meet the needs of those who want to acquire or sharpen their understanding of economics and economic modelling skills. EMA has explored its modelling applications in all nine languages and for now, Zulu is available on an experimental basis. We are, however, committed to cover all nine languages.
EMA stands to play its part in resolving the unending crisis and existential threat that faces SA’s economic, social and political landscape. By empowering citizens with knowledge and the ability to integrate their thought systems towards design and systems thinking, Dr Dr Asghar Adelzadeh and I are convinced EMA makes a significant contribution in building state capacity in a fundamentally different and sustainable way.
Our doors open in September, so be on your marks, get set, ready because that’s go. Visit our website and register to view the programmes. The rain of exhortations has now been demobilised. EMA is a train of tools and prods that make you act development. This by defining the future through scenarios and acting on the best path by applying tools that capture laws of economic motion through modelling, using a vast array of timeseries statistics to build and refresh the models to keep them current. EMA provides instant feedback of the results of our thoughts.
Dr Pali Lehohla is director of EMA, professor of practice at the University of Johannesburg (UJ), research associate at Oxford and a former statistician general of SA.
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