PALI LEHOHLA | Africa’s widow syndrome: mourning is the only job prospect for youth

The great man, the husband, passes on to the next world. The widow mourns. But tears and grief are not enough. Poverty is the only admissible evidence of loss. For if the African widow remains wealthy, lo and behold the world will be suspicious that she took her husband’s life to amass his riches. The African widow must be in tatters and forever lament that were the husband here, all would be well. As in John 11:12, Martha lamented to Jesus: “Lord if you had been here, my brother would not have died.” The great man was not there and calamity struck.

Projections about the future are part of life because it is always in relation to that thatwe dream. The UN annually runs population projections and looks to the future, as far as 2100. In 1980 the O’Jays led with a song, The Year 2000. It asked a rhetorical question: how old do you think you will be in the year 2000? But the deep meaning of the song regarded people’s thoughts about their wellbeing and that of the planet, asking whether there would still be wars. A nation without scenarios is doomed. Such a nation is, at best and worst, navel-gazing, only focusing on the trough, swallowing metal, rotting food and pearls, as a pig does.

The UN projects that by the end of the year there will be 8-billion people in the world. Africa will have about 1.25-billion. By 2050, in just 30 years, the continent will have double that number at 2.5-billion. That means every third person will be an African and every second young person will too. The question we should ask is will Africa be the same, better or worse in about a generation from now? Will Africa be a bastion of underdevelopment or at the centre of growth and development. The continent developed Agenda 2063, the Africa we want. This was led by SA’s Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, then AU Commission chair. The Africa of our dreams has seven aspirations: a prosperous continent based on inclusive growth and sustainable development; an integrated continent that’s politically united and based on the ideals of pan-Africanism and the vision of African renaissance; an Africa of good governance, democracy, respect for human rights, justice and the rule of law; a peaceful and secure Africa; an Africa with a strong cultural identity, common heritage, values and ethics; an Africa whose development is people-driven, relying on African people’s potential, especially its women and youth, and caring for children; and an Africa that’s strong, united, resilient and an influential global player and partner.

If Africa’s youth are poor, then every second young person in the world based on current trends will not only be poor but African. This cannot represent the Africa we want, yet it may well be the continent we have, one we will have wrought unto ourselves.

In a recent opinion piece in Business Day Abba Omar observes that “over the past 12 months, eight coups have been staged in Africa, five of them removing leaders from power. This came after significant strides in transiting towards democracy. Guinea’s first truly democratic elections were held in 2010 and mass protests in Burkina Faso in 2014 ended Blaise Compaoré’s 27-year reign. From 2017 to 2019 protesters toppled dictators in Algeria, Gambia, Zimbabwe and Sudan. In March 2021, Niger for the first time transferred power from one democratically elected leader to another. What is causing this recent ‘epidemic of coups d’état’, as UN secretary-general António Guterres calls it, and what should our response be as South Africans?”

Agenda 2063 faces a tirade of challenges. Many an African leader has pronounced themselves on the potential of the youth bulge, as though the youth eat potential. If Africa’s youth are poor, then every second young person in the world based on current trends will not only be poor but African. This cannot represent the Africa we want, yet it may well be the continent we have, one we will have wrought unto ourselves. This scenario is real for SA for the foreseeable future as the ruling party, for a decade, has struggled without success with its unity project. This futile endeavour has led to society and the country becoming hapless collateral.

The recently released discussion documents in the build-up to the ANC elective conference in December are underwhelming, especially one that discusses SA’s economic future. There is limited space to deliver a critique. However, a critical problem facing the country is the one facing the youth. The document, in its recommendations, says this about youth education in relation to employment: “An increase in the share of young people aged 18 to 25 with matric so that we can increase their employability.” The document seems to be written by those insulated from or averse to facts. For if they were not, they would not have made such a ludicrous point on a critical current and future matter on education and employment. Indeed, a nation led by those with scant respect for tools of foresight is doomed.

Here are the facts about employment and education based on the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) of the statistician-general. You really wonder whether the economics desk of the ANC has the analytical capacity to make meaning from numbers.

The QLFS shows unemployment of those with matric is marginally different, intolerably high and above the official rate of unemployment of those with less than matric. This is 37.7% and 39.9% respectively. So, what would increasing the overall matric qualification deliver in relation to employment? Only the blind and innumerate can make such spuriously stupid statements. Worse still is what happens in the category “other tertiary”. Scant attention is paid to the outputs of tertiary in relation to employment outcomes over time. Comparing pre-1994 with post-1994 is too telling on the implications of policy in this sector. Those who attended “other tertiary” before 1994 have had better job prospects compared with those who did so post-1994. Only those with university degrees have maintained almost equitable employment outcomes in the pre and post period. The question begged by this observation is what policy prescripts created these outcomes for “other tertiary”? The less said about the macroeconomic perspectives, especially in relation to the microeconomic perspective, the better. This should cease the policy discussions.

Once upon a time there was a Reconstruction and Development Programme that seized the nation’s imagination. Once upon a time was great leadership in SA that rendered hope and fortitude to the nation. Once upon a time was a great, broad front of liberation movements. All have ceased to exist. We are “blessed” with an African widow syndrome of a special type though. Her worth of mourning is seen in her perpetual poverty. Should she defeat poverty she will be seen to be disrespectful to the great that have departed. Her true mourning is in accepting and lamenting the departure of the great husband and glorifying the memory of the thought leadership that belongs to those departed. But our modern-day widow shows more in her mourning. She is vulgar and displays a promiscuous relationship and appreciation for freedom that can only serve to desecrate the grave of the great husband and wrought eternal wrath and condemnation on future generations. What a widow we have become!

Dr Pali Lehohla is director of the Economic Modelling Academy, professor of practice at the University of Johannesburg, research associate at Oxford University and former statistician-general of SA.