Unless the world’s biggest climate summit can agree this week on a rapid shift away from its reliance on oil, coal and gas, the extravaganza that is COP28 will not justify the aviation emissions released to get more than 70,000 delegates to Dubai in the UAE.
What’s needed is a deal to “phase out the fossil fuels” in a just transition that doesn’t hinder development in the Global South. But this is unlikely given nearly 200 countries must agree on the final text, which is decided by consensus.
Time is running out to stop the emissions driving “global boiling” (as the UN secretary-general calls it) and the collapse of earth’s natural systems on which we depend.
But COP28 will also be judged on whether it can deliver the billions of dollars needed for the new “loss and damage” fund (to recover from disasters, like flooding) and for adaptation, that is, preparing for worse catastrophes to come.
COP28 opened on a high note with countries launching the loss and damage fund and $726m pledged (by December 7) to help developing countries. These promises went some way to restoring broken trust between the north and south, after the latter had waited more than two years for the developed world to fulfil its 2020 pledge of $100bn annually to help them cope with the climate shocks.
The Global South has contributed the least to harmful emissions but is the most vulnerable. High on South Africa's agenda at COP28 is developing a global goal on adaptation with concrete targets, and financing it.
COP28 also needs to tackle the final phase of the “global stocktake”, an evaluation of countries’ progress (or lack thereof) towards the 2015 Paris Agreement goal: to limit global warming to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era.
Exceeding 1.5°C is rapidly becoming inevitable, scientists warn, calling for more ambitious targets. Hopefully the global stocktake report will encourage the setting of bolder national goals by each country. Multiple declarations being made at COP28 — for example, a Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge supported by 124 countries — could also make a positive impact.
The signing of agreements on food systems and health for the first time at a climate COP and support for those affected were wins. For example, $200m is promised to smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia for adaptation, and $777m to fight “neglected tropical diseases”, which are expected to spread.
COP president Sultan Al Jaber has declared repeatedly that 1.5°C is his North Star, despite the contradiction of an oil producer hosting a climate summit attended by some 2,400 fossil fuel giants. On day 5, his credibility was on the line after his remark that there is “no science ... that says the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5°C”, which he hastily declared was misinterpreted.
However, the sultan spins it, the science is crystal clear. Countries need to scale up their delivery of renewable energy to meet our energy, transport and other needs.
The rapid adoption of e-vehicles in the North is a sign of progress, given that their use could significantly reduce emissions. But scaling up technologies like these need to benefit developing countries, where many of the rare minerals needed for batteries (for example cobalt in the DRC) are found.
Development in the Global South could leapfrog ahead if it gets backing for technology solutions, uncoupled from carbon emissions. However, such initiatives must not come at the cost of nature whose living systems, like forests and oceans, protect the overheating planet.
South Africa has committed to hit net-zero emissions by 2050. To achieve this transition away from coal-fired power towards renewable energy and jobs, it will need billions in mitigation funding. That’s another target by which COP28 will be judged.
Country negotiators have been working into the night to try to reach consensus on the final text by the official closing on Tuesday though, like prior summits, COP28 could overrun its deadline.
But earth’s deadlines are what count, and whether COP28 will deliver on these before it is too late.
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