JONATHAN JANSEN | Coalition politics means power tussles and not much else

By the time you read this column, the elections will be over, the ruling party will be scrambling to secure a coalition partner to take them over the 50% mark, and load-shedding will be back in full swing. In other words, back to abnormal.

The ANC cannot stomach the ‘white’ DA, so the party dominant for 30 years in electoral politics is likely to hook up with the EFF, flipping our beleaguered Mzansi from the frying pan into the fire. As the New York Times headlined in a fascinating article this week, The Story of South Africa No Longer Makes Sense. And as a black South African woman told the BBC this week, she would not be voting because she has been fooled before.

Make no mistake, the fierce negotiations for coalition partners will not have any effect whatsoever on the lives of ordinary South Africans. That is because coalitions are about securing power and influence in the political arena, finish en klaar. The last thing on the mind of the powermongers will be staggering unemployment or land reform or quality education.

If you have not noticed this trend after three decades, you will never learn.

The EFF as the preferred coalition partner will be trying to secure prime positions in various cabinet portfolios; they certainly won’t come cheap. Rest assured, the red berets will not be interested in boring social services portfolios like health or home affairs. Nope, the brothers want their hands on the steering wheels of the economy. Remember Floyd’s December sweater? “All I want for Christmas is the means of production.” In this context, I could not help thinking this week about the celebrated American criminal called Willie Sutton whom, when asked why he kept robbing banks, replied, “because that’s where the money is.” The EFF certainly knows where the money is.

Despite all the promises made and the babies kissed and the cheap houses handed out in the run up to the elections, the day after will be exactly the same as before May 29 2024. If you have not noticed this trend after three decades, you will never learn.

Early childhood development will still not be fully funded to guarantee full enrolment in quality education for every grade R learner. There will still be tens of thousands of tertiary students dropping out because of the inadequacy and unpredictability of NSFAS funding. White and middle class students will still go to the best schools; poor and working class students will still be stuck in underperforming schools. Most of the technical colleges will still lack state-of-the-art equipment and the best-trained technologists to teach these career-orientated courses.

With or without coalition politics, none of these vitally needed education issues will be resolved as a consequence of elections held this week. Instead, we will be treated to vicious and ongoing political infighting within the coming coalition era — for three reasons. One, because coalitions are marriages of convenience among parties with sometimes vastly different ideological standpoints. Two, because when you tasted power, as a minority coalition partner, you are not only hungry for more of it, but you never feel you got enough. And three, because we are a young and immature democracy. For these observations, we have proof of concept: the mayoral music chairs in Johannesburg or the Nelson Mandela Bay metro. Utterly embarrassing.

The kind of coalition politics that will shift the needle in education and development in South Africa is more likely to come from below. Students have shown what can happen when they join forces with staff and workers on campus. Education NGOs and the private sector continue to offer the most promising alternatives to early childhood education in these desperate times. Universities working with poorer communities bring resources and expertise into schools government cannot care about; I have been very lucky over the years to enjoy working in this space. Religious groups, retired teachers, shopkeepers, doctors and dentists are all people I am privileged to work with and who contribute from their own pockets to create food gardens on school grounds or provide free dental services to children whose parents are either not around or cannot take off from work to take them to the clinic.

But if you think coalition politics is finally going to resolve some of these enduring problems, you have not been paying attention. Expect power tussles that have nothing to do with your safety and security in a violent country or your capacity to put food on the table day in and day out to sustain your family.

This, perhaps, is the unexpected benefit of living and learning within a state that lacks capacity and that is hobbled by corruption. It reminds us to go back to a clarion call of an earlier struggle: the people shall govern. That says nothing about politicians.