JUSTICE MALALA

There will be fights. There will be arguments. There will be insults. There will be walkouts. There might even be trial separations — or divorce. That’s the nature of coalitions in South Africa, as we have learnt from bitter experience since 2016.

If the events of the past week of horse-trading over the formation of a new cabinet based on the signing of a government of national unity (GNU) agreement are to be useful, they must leave us with some new lessons about the unique conglomerated animal that now leads the country and two of our provinces. They must also serve as a reminder that in these national negotiations we must not forget the lessons from local government coalitions — and how easily our country can become as dysfunctional an entity as the City of Johannesburg is today.

The most important reminder from the past week’s events is this process is going to be hard and things are not going to get easier over the duration of these new coalition arrangements. Even with bitter experience, leaders last week engaged in some of the brinkmanship, showboating and arrogance we’ve seen again and again in coalition arrangements which have collapsed at municipal level.

Few voices which have succeeded or failed at these arrangements — from Nelson Mandela Bay to Ekurhuleni — seem to have input into the process. The lessons from what happened after the DA's Mpho Phalatse became Johannesburg's coalition mayor in 2021 and how she soon lost it don’t seem to have percolated through last week’s conversations. Is it because these lessons are from local/municipal tie-ups and therefore looked down upon? If that’s the attitude, we will fail again.

The journey to clinching a deal was full of hairy moments. Reports of a collapse in talks were plentiful. For South Africans and other observers of our politics the key thing is this: don’t panic. Don’t react to every news report in isolation.

Last Thursday some news reports and social media busybodies ran with the narrative that the rand was “tanking” due to a blip in the cabinet negotiations. The rand was hardly tanking. It was moving within a range it had straddled for more than a year. It was weakening from the previous week’s rally, for sure, but shouts of a tanking rand were alarmist at best. It is better to watch the trend, to concern yourself with the arc of the story, than obsess about the minutiae of what is happening in the negotiations. If you do this, you’ll give yourself a heart attack because every fight becomes a deal-breaker. Allow the negotiators to win or lose fights. Not every disagreement means the coalition is collapsing.

I cannot emphasise how careful our politicians must be in their use of social media. Social media has in many ways been positive for our democracy. Politicians have become closer to voters just as some voters now have direct access to them.

It is, however, a double-edged sword. Since the beginning, these negotiations have been characterised by leaks and attempts to manipulate the process through disinformation and misinformation. These tactics will blow up in politicians’ faces if they are not careful. Voters want their leaders to engage soberly and seriously with these talks. To see one’s leaders playing to the gallery while displaying a lack of appreciation for the seriousness of the situation is dispiriting. It could lead to these politicians being punished at the polls in 2026 and 2029. Ask COPE, the party which attracted 1.3-million votes in 2009 and is now no more.

The news that a cabinet deal has been struck should be welcomed. Yet this merely means we have begun the journey while the hard part lies ahead. We are at the foot of Mount Kilimanjaro. The climb lies ahead. It is not going to be easy. There are vast differences between the two main parties in this deal. There are major disagreements between their leaders. There is suspicion on both sides. And there are many who want to see the agreement collapse.

For South Africans and other observers of our politics the key thing is this: don’t panic. Don’t react to every news report in isolation

The stakes are high. If this GNU fails, the real prospect of an ANC tie-up with Jacob Zuma’s party — led by those implicated in corruption and malfeasance — rises. Such a coalition would be a disaster. Every attempt to capture the state, as happened in 2009-2018, would return with a vengeance.

South Africa can’t afford to make mistakes. Too much is at stake. We need sober heads and careful tongues. We need leaders who will pick up their phones and discuss matters before they rush to the media. We will need restraint and principled arguments.

It won’t be easy. We need an appreciation of that simple fact from everyone in the room. Then we need our new leaders to leave their phones outside the room and get to work together. A great opportunity lies before us.