In the midst of what Indlulamithi Scenarios confirmed in 2018 that South Africa had entered a “Gwara-Gwara” state, the nightmare of the election led Indlulamithi in 2023 to release a new set of scenarios on the basis of evidence that ours was increasingly becoming a vulture culture.
This sequence of states was born out of what we in government then in the review of the Memories of the Future Scenarios envisioned in 2006 a Muvhango outcome for South Africa in another 20 years when the ANC will have lost its majority.
This was premised on the likely outcome of the germination of the seeds of the onset of the ANC Polokwane conference which was two years away.
The seeds germinated and, alas, how prophetic the public service of the time was to foresee this vulture state over which the making of the government of national unity (GNU) haplessly attempts to preside.
No doubt the Indlulamithi Scenarios and those of government in 2002 and 2006 provide a wealth of knowledge on which South Africa can now draw.
In our paper presented on June 22 at the Academic Council on the UN System in Tokyo, the key question John Carnerson and I insisted should be asked is whether the current crop of people in positions of leadership pursue intergenerational value for South Africans or do they just pay lip service to this dire condition?
We argue in the paper that the concept of social and economic development has almost vanished in South Africa, setting the stage for the vulture culture, a deepening form of the Gwara-Gwara nation. Yet ample evidence shows postcolonial countries that transformed and overcame similar problems have all been strongly developmental.
The conditions for doing this were similar in every case. Ha-Joon Chang, the South Korean economist, found they had a unifying national vision and a viable strategy, implemented by a professional state with corruption under control. The vision and strategy were supported by patriots and sections of the economic elite; and by the masses, who experienced rising levels of health and education, plus other benefits.
The people’s defence of Bolivia against a military coup on Wednesday attests to the truthfulness of a people’s commitment to the value of an economy that serves as its primary motif society.
Globally, post-colonial elites use shadow states to loot resources, stay in power and avoid accountability
In South Africa, after three decades our society and economy remain essentially colonial and we have among the worst unemployment and inequality rates. There is no unifying national vision, strategy or coherence in our National Development Plan, and the Planning Commission has no authority or capacity.
Crime and corruption are rampant and transformation is defined in racial terms. For most poor and marginalised the health and education systems are failing.
Overwhelming evidence shows generational value for blacks and coloureds remains a pipe dream not to be realised in a hundred nor a thousand years as the trend accelerates monotonically downwards for every census time-plot outcome and ankle-level stuck skilled labour.
These observations contrast markedly with the upward and accelerating generational value and skilled labour among whites and Indians. The real economy is still dominated by the old elite and white middle class, represented by the DA.
Sampie Terreblanche in “A History of Inequality in South Africa, 1652—2002”, points out that capital in South Africa is highly concentrated and before the first election, the ANC and the largest corporates met in Pretoria and made a deal.
Terreblanche poured cold water on the Mont Fleur Scenarios on the notion of the Flight of the Flamingos.
Consequently, neither elite has wanted to transform society structurally by implementing an integrated development programme.
The state has been left weak, bloated relative to its output and uncoordinated. It is the primary source of wealth for the political elite and the black middle class, represented by the ANC.
A former National Prosecuting Authority head estimated R1.4-trillion was stolen from our state through corruption and patronage. The economic and social costs of bad governance and paucity of systems design and design thinking are much higher. They have yielded planning outcomes that exhibit no integrated reporting, economic growth that was comatose in the past 15 years, increased poverty and inequality.
Such arrangements have been the norm in post-colonies, as explained by theorists, from Fanon to Achilles Mbembe.
State capture became visible in South Africa recently, but Mbembe points to “the appearance, all over the continent, of forms of indirect private government”. (The post-Colony, 2000).
Globally, postcolonial elites use shadow states to loot resources, stay in power and avoid accountability.
The emerging GNU opens up possibilities. However, despite a general crisis, there is still no unifying vision or strategy from political leaders or parties. Neither the ANC nor the DA know how to envision a future economy and society or drive development.
This leaves a gap where populism and opportunism thrive in the wake of state capture, often linked to criminal syndicates.
In this paper, Lehohla and Carnerson maintain a national front of small and medium-enterprises (SMEs) and communities when undergirded by the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) can drive and defend a development agenda, hold officials and politicians accountable and support the transformation of the state.
Our SME sector is smaller than elsewhere and communities are disempowered, but the critical role the United Democratic Front played in overthrowing apartheid represents a solid legacy. The 4IR is creating conditions for the rapid expansion of SMEs, which will employ a least 70% of workers.
Community Development Committees (CDCs) can be networked nationally and beyond. The front must be fully inclusive, independent and community based; and its focus will be on making development programmes and projects succeed. This means supporting reform of the state, which cannot effectively support SMEs or service communities.
In South Africa it should be non-party-political and independent of the state. It must make effective use of data to report holistically and honestly and work at all levels with relevant partners and stakeholders.
With millions of members and associated organisations, it could be defended. Even now, where there is community, creativity and ferment, new and effective young leaders are emerging.
South Africa needs to join a growing number of African countries where the political elites are starting to invest more in development and less in using the state to amass wealth.
Events in Kenya show a growing dialogue about development between the elite and civil society, including with communities and SMEs.
It is never going to be easy and each nation will find its own path. We can take a leaf from the Scots who “have a long history of pioneering new forms of business, including mutuals, co-operatives and social enterprises.
These reflect a belief among the people of Scotland in a fairer, more equal society — organised for the benefit of all — where business activity is used as a means to this end and not an end in itself.
Over the past decade, social enterprise has enjoyed growing levels of political and economic support. During this time the Scottish government has recognised social enterprise as an important partner in the economy, civic society and public services and in the creation of a fairer and more inclusive Scotland.
Here at home, Morena Mohlomi, an 18th century Mosotho philosopher who lived in the Mohokare Valley in then Lesotho, created an academy of leadership. Central to what his proteges learnt was the meaning of a responsible leader. He defined a responsible leader as one who “pursues peaceful and productive alliances, accommodates stakeholders and uses new instruments of power to create intergenerational value”.
We believe the envisaged national convention or dialogue will benefit vastly from this critique.
Dr John Carneson is a South African who headed policy, strategy and planning at home affairs. He previously was an educationist. He now consults and writes and assists a rural CDC. He worked on development models and the 4IR. john.carneson.consult@gmail.com
Dr Pali Lehohla is a professor of practice at the University of Johannesburg, a research associate at Oxford University, a board member of the Institute for Economic Justice at Wits and a distinguished alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former statistician-general of South Africa
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