Saturday is not a repeat of the 2023 Rugby World Cup final between the Springboks and All Blacks; neither is it a revisit of the last time the two nations met at Ellis Park in 2022. Saturday is a new chapter because there are so many new faces involved on both sides.
The Springboks, with Rassie Erasmus in charge since 2018, are more settled as a group than the All Blacks, with Scott Robertson in his first season as head coach.
Many in the respective match 23s are familiar, having played at Ellis Park in 2022 and at the Stade de France in Paris in the 2023 World Cup final. But only a handful would have started in the same position on all three occasions. For the Boks it is No 12 Damian de Allende, captain and No 6 Siya Kolisi and tighthead prop Frans Malherbe.
In 2024, both teams have lost one in five, and both would have been filthy at losing a Test at home.
For the All Blacks it is right wing Will Jordan, No 13 Rieko Ioane, No 8 Ardi Savea, No 7 Sam Cane and No 4 and new captain Scott Barrett.
Other names such as Jesse Kriel, Kwagga Smith, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Eben Etzebeth, Ox Nche and Handre Pollard would have been in all three match 23s, even if not exclusively playing one position.
Everything is different about Saturday, in starting line-ups, match-day squads, occasion and team mentality.
In 2022, the All Blacks had lost 26-10 (a then record defeat to the Boks) in Mbombela, and they arrived at Ellis Park having lost five of their previous six Tests. Then-coach Ian Foster was going to be fired if they lost again.
The Boks, comfortable after the crushing nature of their win in Mbombela, fielded five changes to the starting XV, lacked intensity in the opening half hour and trailed 15-0 to a fired-up All Blacks playing for pride, respect and a plane ticket to the World Cup.
The class of the Boks showed in the fightback to lead 23-21 with 13 minutes to play, a lead they held until the final six minutes when the All Blacks struck brilliantly with two tries, the last of which was the final movement of the match.
At the World Cup, the Boks had come off two desperately exhausting play-off wins against France (29-28) and England (16-15), while the All Blacks, after stunning Ireland 28-24 in the quarterfinals, smashed the Pumas 44-6 in the semifinal.
The differentiator in the final, also a one-pointer for the Boks (12-11), was that they had a winning habit and a winning mentality. They knew how to play and win the big moments, and they also had achieved World Cup success in 2019.
The All Blacks were a group finding confidence and not quite able to nail those big World Cup final-winning moments.
This year, both teams have lost one in five, and both would have been filthy at losing a Test at home.
Both Erasmus and Robertson have spoken about Saturday’s Test being about the quality of performance, with both consistent that if the performance is good enough, the result looks after itself.
It is the type of talk that could see the match end 31-all, which is the average score between the two nations at Ellis Park in the last eight match-ups.
Realistically, though, the pressure is on the World Champion Boks to win at home, and do it in style against their greatest rival. For Robertson, if there is to be a defeat, the heroism or quality of play turns the talk to growth and a new squad evolving.
The Boks, at the 2023 World Cup, handled the pressure of being favourites. They did it the hard way, with the view often from the gutters. This experience, by way of their biggest profile players, is what should be the difference in victory and defeat on Saturday.
Those players and the strength of the substitute’s bench.
The Boks, by sheer weight of expectation, will deliver a win, and they will do it by 10-points plus, to set up a titanic battle a week later in Cape Town.
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