As the reality of Cyril Ramaphosa's last term starts to sink in within the ranks of the ANC, Gauteng's posture on the government of national unity may be seen as the firing of the starting gun to mark the beginning of a race towards December 16 2027.
After an embarrassing 40% performance in the 2024 elections, including the hung metropolitan municipalities, the Gauteng chapter of the ANC has had to respond. It now turns out that the Gauteng standoff with the national GNU arrangements is a touched domino the ANC-DA confidence-in-supply agreement dared not to see.
Opposition to a coalition with the DA as an anchor partner would have always been inevitable in the ANC-led Gauteng under Panyaza Lesufi. The tense skirmishes, particularly on the schools integration policies, have created an arguably irreparable schism. There is also the character of the Gauteng PEC representatives, most of whom were part of the ANCYL when Julius Malema was its president. It would be odd for key members of that generation not to be antagonistic towards the current configuration of the GNU despite supporting the idea.
The political power interests of the Gauteng ANC chapter, in local government, call for coalition arrangements that project a profoundly anti-DA and pro-patriotic front posture. The truth is that the existential threat from the EFF and MK Party is more pronounced in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal than in any other province. Therefore, ascension to regional and provincial leadership of the ANC in KZN and Gauteng will, for the foreseeable future, be linked to anti-previous establishment rhetoric and posture as political capital.
The calculated stance of translating the GNU statement of intent to suit the uniquely Gauteng political conditions has made the province the axis of a different renewal approach and process. The politically stranded components of the ANC-led liberation movement are being reawakened to the new renewal movement that refuses to “kill the proverbial Chris Hani again”. The idea of a patriotic class-based alliance or front is now firmly at the centre of how the GNU, or rather national unity, is defined.
Riven by ideological divisions and rattled by the outcome of the May 2024 elections, the ANC-as-liberation movement alliance has exercised restraint regarding the GNU, which survives at the behest of toeing the party line or the ANC’s loosely applied democratic centralism. Its political party character is flirting with current arrangements for various reasons, some of which might not be in the purview of “we the people”.
There is a shift of generations in the ANC. The economic freedom in our lifetime generation is gaining the upper hand. This group is advancing an economic transformation programme that is radical. They are questioning the progressively timid older generation about the deprioritisation of economic transformation which, according to them, is a generational meeting. To them any coalition should be about this.
The Lesufi-Mbalula stand-off is a proxy for a bigger battle to succeed Ramaphosa, by any standard or measure
With Ramaphosa's leadership term ending, the outcome of the succession battle could bring about significant change. The rise of the “next-ANC” generation, with their economic freedom in our lifetime agenda, could be a beacon of hope for the future of South African politics.
The economic establishment, which has hedged most of its bets on the old guard, is at risk of losing its grip on the fragile political economy of South Africa. Even if the persuasive force of ANC elders were to prevail via the mooted National Dialogue facility, the stubborn templates of economic domination and the time on the side of the younger generation are sufficient to power a new social revolution. The arc of ANC leadership is bending towards a radicalised call for economic transformation. The ANC will not be as moderate when the leadership changes in 2027.
The Gauteng urban machinery has always been the backbone of the ANC's change trajectories. Its proximity over seemingly every facet of the country’s economic, security, cultural, social, and political spheres has made it hegemonic to what ultimately happens in South Africa. Gauteng hosts the national government and, by default, the state's bureaucracy. It is home to the eyes and ears of the world about South Africa. If Gauteng launches a succession battle for the ANC presidency, only the numerical prowess of KZN, Eastern Cape, and Limpopo can scupper the project.
The Lesufi-Mbalula stand-off is a proxy for a bigger battle to succeed Ramaphosa, by any standard or measure. The most unmistakable sign is the 'ditlogile' (those in the race have left the starting line). This will inarguably no doubt tone the upcoming elective regional conferences. Besides the contests for leadership of the ANC and, by default, the country, the liberation movement has been sitting on a surface that has plastered over some of its deepest cracks. Opening up these cracks will be a feature of the succession battle.
As the succession battle hots up when regional elective conferences begin, daggers will be drawn as new national slates start narrowing the list of national contestants. Convention and momentum favour the ANC deputy president, save for the strategic risk the secretary-general has recently been postured to be. The regional rotation dynamics, which might throw Gauteng-based would-be suitors to the throne after Paul Mashatile, might dangerously split the Gauteng vote. It looks like early days, but the battle begins on day one of every term in the ANC.
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