Will the national dialogue be South Africa’s Damascus moment? The sceptic in me says no, while the lingering optimist responds in the affirmative. It is true that as a country we specialise a lot in dialogue and policy design with very little commitment to implementation.
As a result, we are often in the dark about the quality and impact of our recommendations and outcomes of the various dialogues we participate in. Over time, to make ourselves feel good we have even come up with a fallacious narrative that “South Africa has good policies, the problem is implementation”. One cannot tell whether a policy is good or bad until it has been implemented and on evaluation the outcomes are determined and their impact observed. The results can be both positive and/or negative.
This is the greatest risk confronting the proposed national dialogue. Is this another attempt to create a platform to talk for its own sake or is this a moment to respond consciously to the prevailing circumstances in the country, with the urgency required? An even more sceptical question is being posed: will the national dialogue be used as a rescue plan for the ANC and its standing in society after its visible decline as a hegemonic force in society?
For a successful dialogue to take place, we must all be clear about what it is we are responding to, the nature of the crisis confronting the country and a clear set of desirable outcomes that must have a society-wide effect and be embraced.
The nature of the crisis seems to be misunderstood. Some people believe there is a political crisis in the country, merely because of the May 29 election results. However, there is no political crisis. There could have been one had the ANC refused to accept the election results and resist vacating office using unconstitutional means, including the potential use of force. This would have orchestrated massive social upheaval, a confrontation of citizens and the state machinery of violence, leading to injuries, deaths and displacement of people from their homes.
That would have been a crisis, not what we have. We have a power-sharing arrangement among 10 different political parties who in their contradictions and complementarities are committed to ensuring that there is a government in place and that it attempts to work. However, there is no coalition agreement that binds these parties and as a result, society is left none the wiser on this government’s collective priorities and vision for society.
The national dialogue could then be used as a platform to drill down on a set of priorities that should bind these parties in government and future parties in governments to come. The reality of coalition politics is going to stay with South Africa for some time, easily another three decades before a party with a clear majority emerges. This is because of the nature of our electoral system, proportional representation. Three drastic developments would have to happen for us to avoid coalition governments at a national level.
The first would be dramatic changes to our electoral system (something under consideration through the Electoral Reform Consultation Panel) to introduce a disproportionate amount of constituency seats over the proportional representation seats and possibly the direct election of the president.
The second would be the ANC reconstituting itself through a truce with the two most significant breakaways it has experienced, the EFF and MK Party, and bringing them back home through a deal of internal power sharing and distribution of patronage. Nothing is impossible in politics.
The third development would be a significant social rupture that disrupts the configuration of our politics and leads to an electoral politics revolution through a new party that is not from the ANC ecosystem but fundamentally resonates and gives hope to the majority of voters. This would need massive shifts in our politics from various layers, including an injection of new political actors, the activism of voters and a complete disaffection with the 1994 peace accord and its elites.
The dialogue must be a home for those who are pro our constitution as much as it must be a home for those who have become disillusioned with our constitutional order
However, none of these are now at play and therefore it is important to embrace mechanisms that help society respond to the ANC’s loss of hegemony and begin to demonstrate a breakaway from its leadership, ethos and inefficiencies. The national dialogue can be such a mechanism. However, the manner it is constituted, curated and staged and its content will have to truly be representative of all society and not just a fraction.
The dialogue must be a home for those who are pro our constitution as much as it must be a home for those who have become disillusioned with our constitutional order. If the dialogue fails to be all-encompassing, then it will simply be a “GNU-aligned citizens dialogue”. This will detract from the dialogue being a Damascus moment.
The dialogue must at its core be about achieving some national consensus on the fundamental and foundational social and public goods that are necessary for South Africans of all walks of life to thrive and enjoy upward socioeconomic mobility. It must be agreed that the greatest crisis confronting us as a society is inequality. If that is our point of departure, it then should follow that the best way to achieve the agreed-upon social and public goods would need to be the implementation of structural interventions through policy and voluntary instruments.
This is not just a problem for the government, it is also one for those who wield power in society through wealth accumulation. There must be less of a clash in the vision of society between those who hold wealth and those who are marginalised. People such as Gen Bantu Holomisa have previously called for the need to hold an economic Codesa for the country to respond to the socioeconomic strife being experienced by the vast majority of citizens.
The national dialogue must be seen as an urgently needed platform but one that must be beyond politicking and more towards being responsive to the crisis of inequality and its multiple ripple effects on society. We need to emerge with a consensus on three to five key priority issues that must be responded to, invested in and policies implemented if we are to turn around the perilous direction South Africa’s social order is heading in.
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