With the slow gutting of the EFF and the growing internal conflicts within the ANC, Jacob Zuma would only aim to make both President Cyril Ramaphosa and Julius Malema concede defeat to the brilliance of the mind that is Zuma. We ought to establish motive, though much of it may come off as conspiracy. It is important we provide significantly greater thought to the political chess being played.
In February 2018, after a wave of pressure from the newly elected ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa, accompanied by pressure from the EFF, then-president Zuma was forced out of office, similar to how he had once forced former president Thabo Mbeki out of office. But his assumed fall from grace did not end there; it continued with his arrest, which led to the 2021 July unrest and his removal from the ANC. Instead of leaving as a celebrated figure with the typical “blue light brigade”, Zuma was left with much resentment towards both the EFF and the ANC.
It is particularly important to highlight that less than a year ago, in December 2023, uMkhonto we Sizwe ceased to exist. This appeared to be a reactionary move from what we know and it destabilised the ANC, removing it from its ruling power and attempting to strip it of its control in KwaZulu-Natal.
In many ways, uMkhonto we Sizwe destabilised the ANC and shocked senior politicians as they grappled with a world where they had to share power. After achieving victory and causing turbulence in Luthuli House, Zuma refocused his victory on the man who was the loudest during his engagement with the legal system and accusations of corruption.
Malema, after reconciling and coming to terms with defeat, faced what many believed would be a meteoric election, with the EFF expected to contest to be the second-largest party in the country. Instead, they fell to fourth. Malema had to deal with the growing public fatigue with his leadership and a desire for a more active ground force that prioritised the Black revolution. Malema, to some extent, had fallen ill to the same autocratic leadership that Zuma used and was unable to justify or establish equal leadership among his constituency. Slowly, one by one, disgruntlement, tension and disappointment began to surface. Co-founder Floyd Shivambu headed for the doors and swapped his red overalls for green ones. Similarly, Busisiwe Mkhwebane left, then most recently and most shockingly, advocate Dali Mpofu.
Now, many questions remain about who will stay in the EFF and make up the party. Media reports of proposals to integrate the EFF into the MK Party make it clear that the reins were slowly being taken away from Malema. Dan Corder, a political commentator, remarked that the EFF is losing many of the people who were core to its support base and functionality. Not only has it already seen Malema serve beneath his co-founder Floyd, it would probably see a world where Malema no longer holds validity through his position and leadership. The worst part is that it would not only see the closure of the EFF but, to some extent, the end of Malema as a formidable leader.
Already, with Shivambu providing the intellectual and structural development of the MK Party and being promoted to the secretary-general of the party, there would be limited ways for Malema to swim upstream amid his tension with Shivambu. Many attest to their decision to leave as a direct result of the lack of adequate leadership and commitment to Black leadership.
The checkmate scenario would leave Ramaphosa with a worse problem than he started with. At the beginning of his presidency, he promised to eliminate corruption and renew the ANC. But in a world where Zuma or the more left-leaning faction within the ANC ends Ramaphosa's term early and replaces him with Zuma and/or his ideals, Zuma could succeed in re-establishing himself as a candidate in the ANC in 2027 and as the victor.
The cherry on top would be a world where the revolutionary and democratic forces reunited under the ANC banner. This would prioritise the movement as a political force rather than merely a party focusing on the wellbeing of the country over political principles. If Zuma’s appeal is successful, he might be allowed to contest the ANC presidency in the same way Mbeki attempted a third term.
The question then becomes: why and what would it be all for? What value would there be in tearing down the organisations that made you and gave you everything? In reality, are we not understanding the glory and martyrdom that would occur if they could reunite and mobilise a “new,” more radical ANC, as it may have been envisioned at the onset of 1994?
• Khumo Kumalo is a political science student, founder of Misunderstood website and also hosts a podcast that discusses a multitude of topics, from elections in South Africa to the Israel and Palestine crisis
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