Mozambique stands on the brink of a full-blown civil conflict after the controversial ruling by its Constitutional Council, which validated the contested victory of Frelimo party candidate Daniel Chapo in the recent elections.
Chapo’s disputed win in October’s election has sparked wide unrest, after months of protests. It has also resulted in thousands of Mozambican citizens fleeing to neighbouring Malawi. The opposition leader Venancio Mondlane called for peaceful protests, but most of the streets in the cities were blocked, and some shops and businesses were looted. Amid this chaos, thousands of inmates also broke free from a prison in Maputo.
More than 134 people were killed in the past week of unrest, according to local NGO Plataforma Decide, taking the overall death toll since the elections to at least 261. While all this is happening, Frelimo appears ‘‘unshaken’’. At the heart of this conflict, the opposition candidate Venancio Mondlane and his supporters have disregarded the council’s ruling and vowed not to leave the streets until the electoral dispute is resolved.
The council’s decision to uphold and validate the election results, despite substantial irregularities and discrepancies in the vote count as pronounced by the National Electoral Commission (Ceni), raises critical concerns about the credibility of the council itself, the electoral process and the escalating violence, political instability, deaths and forced migration of Mozambicans across the region. While the situation is getting worse by the day, the position of Frelimo and unwillingness to engage the situation with caution remains a concern.
Analysts are of the view that the Constitutional Council’s recent decision to validate the contested election results, despite glaring irregularities, and reports of electoral malpractice reported by both international and domestic observers signals the council’s troubling departure from democratic and governance principles.
Sadc's perceived failure to intervene timeously and to mediate in the situation undermines its credibility as a guardian of democracy and may embolden authoritarian practices within its member states
The council’s decision to reduce the number of votes previously pronounced by Ceni is seen to not only undermine the integrity of the electoral process but also casts doubt on the independence and impartiality of the council itself. Such actions are seen to pave the way for the ruling party, Frelimo, to consolidate power further, marginalising opposition voices and fostering an environment ripe for a full-blown civil conflict.
Numerous reports from various election stakeholders including international election observation missions documented a number of irregularities that characterised the electoral process, including allegations of voter suppression, manipulation of ballots, ballot stuffing and the intimidation of opposition party members. In addition, the discrepancies between the initial number of the votes counted announced by Ceni and the final outcomes declared by the Constitutional Council suggest systemic flaws within the electoral management process.
The failure of the council to address these issues not only discredits the council itself but also contributes to a broader atmosphere of distrust among the electorate, opposition parties, and civil society. The Southern African Development Community (Sadc), though expected to play a crucial role in mediating this electoral dispute and upholding democratic norms in the region, has not pronounced a position on this critical situation. The apparent inaction raises concerns about the effectiveness of regional governance mechanisms.
Sadc's perceived failure to intervene timeously and to mediate undermines its credibility as a guardian of democracy and may embolden authoritarian practices within member states, further worsening regional instability and forced migration as we have seen in the past weeks in Mozambique.
The ramifications of the council's ruling extend beyond political disenfranchisement and has led to renewed violence and perpetual civil unrest. Discontent among opposition supporters, civil society groups, and everyday citizens is expected to escalate as protesters perceive the electoral system as rigged and illegitimate. Again, the silence of Sadc is seen to anger many protesters. Historical precedents in Mozambique demonstrate how electoral grievances have previously sparked conflict, and the current climate suggests a potential recurrence of these patterns and may likely be the worst electoral conflict in Mozambique’s history.
Finally, the validation of the controversial election results by Mozambique's Constitutional Council illustrates a critical juncture in the nation’s political landscape. With a palpable erosion of trust in democratic institutions and the risk of escalating civil unrest, it is imperative that stakeholders domestically and internationally urgently address the underlying issues by creating an environment of useful dialogue to the conflict. While South Africa is making efforts to bring parties to dialogue, the role of Sadc is critical to add value to the existing efforts.
Failure to do so risks plunging Mozambique into further turmoil, undermining years of progress towards stability and democracy in the region. Ensuring a credible electoral process is not merely a matter of restoring public confidence; it is essential for the country's peace and prosperity.
• Mbanje is the Expression, Information and Digital Rights Unit Project Officer for the Centre for Human Rights, at the University of Pretoria
• For opinion and analysis consideration, email Opinions@timeslive.co.za
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